PROVETRY Market Overview for 2025-10-04

• Price opened at $31.58 and closed at $31.14, declining below the morning’s high of $34.07.
• A key support level formed near $31.50, with volume increasing during retests.
• Overbought RSI conditions from early gains gave way to oversold conditions by late evening.
• Bollinger Bands show a sharp expansion during the post-noon sell-off, with price near the lower band.
• Notional turnover peaked at $2.15 million during the 23:30 ET hour, while volume dipped below $100 at times.

On 2025-10-04, PROVETRY opened at $31.58 (12:00 ET − 1) and traded within a broad $3.33 range, reaching a high of $34.07 and closing at $31.14 (12:00 ET). Total notional turnover over the 24-hour period amounted to approximately $3.58 million on a volume of 117,460.5 units. The asset experienced volatile price swings, including a strong 15-minute rally to $34.07, followed by a sharp selloff.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart shows a strong bearish reversal pattern forming after the $34.07 high. A large bearish engulfing pattern occurred during the 16:30–17:00 ET hour, followed by a weak recovery attempt. Key support levels have emerged near $31.50 and $30.94, with the former holding as price tested it twice in the evening. A doji candle appeared at $31.73 (01:30 ET), suggesting a potential short-term equilibrium point.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute timeframe, price closed below both the 20- and 50-period moving averages, indicating short-term bearish momentum. The 50-period MA is falling, while the 20-period MA is dipping below it. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period MA is trending downward and is likely to intersect the 100- and 200-period MAs in the next few days, signaling a potential bearish crossover.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative during the afternoon and remained below the signal line, with bearish divergence in the afternoon sell-off. The RSI fell rapidly to oversold territory after the 02:45 ET candle, indicating potential short-term exhaustion. However, RSI failed to show a strong bullish rebound at the 30 level, which may suggest a lack of conviction in short-term buyers.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded during the afternoon sell-off, with the price dropping to the lower band. The expansion suggests increased volatility, and the price remains near the lower band as of the close. A period of consolidation within the bands may follow if the market stabilizes near $31.50.

Volume & Turnover

Volume peaked during the 23:30 ET candle, reaching 3,451.7 units, while notional turnover hit $111,675. The high volume was accompanied by a bearish price move to $32.50. However, during the final hours of the session, both volume and turnover declined significantly, with several 15-minute candles showing zero volume, suggesting market inactivity and potentially weak follow-through to recent moves.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the key 34.07–31.14 swing, the 38.2% level is at $32.60, and the 61.8% level is at $31.85. Price tested the 61.8% level twice during the evening and failed to hold, reinforcing the bearish bias. These levels may act as dynamic support/resistance for the next 24–48 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish reversal patterns and confirmed RSI oversold levels, a potential backtesting strategy could involve a short entry at the close of the 02:45 ET candle (31.73) with a stop above $31.85 (Fib 61.8% level) and a target at $30.94 (prior support). The MACD divergence and Bollinger Band contraction suggest a high-probability environment for a short-term bearish continuation. This approach would capitalize on the strong bearish momentum observed in the last 48 hours, with Fibonacci levels and RSI exhaustion as confirmation tools.