ProVen Growth & Income VCT: 5.7% Spread, Falling NAV, and a Fresh Share Admission

New Ordinary Shares are the headline, but execution is the real issue

New Ordinary Shares admitted to trading today are fully fungible with existing Ordinary shares, so the admission does not change the underlying fund. It simply adds more supply to the same vehicle. The bigger practical issue is trading friction: buy 45.40p, sell 42.80p, spread 5.73%.

That means the trade only works if the discount to NAV is large enough to absorb the spread and other entry costs. A VCT can still look attractive with wide bid-offer spreads, but here the spread is not a cushion. It is an immediate drag on returns.

Over the nine months to 30 November 2025, ProVen's NAV per share fell from 50.2p at 28 February 2025 to 49.0 at 30 November 2025, while Dividends paid to date (originally as "C" Shares)* stood at 82.65p. The decline in NAV is modest in isolation, but combined with a continuing payout stream it raises the burden on income and on the discount.

ProVen's softer NAV makes the entry math tougher

The nine-month NAV drift matters more than the admission

For a VCT, a softer NAV does not automatically break the thesis. But it does weaken the simple buy-and-hold version of it. If the asset base keeps easing, the payout looks more demanding and the case for entry needs a wider margin of safety.

Why the fresh supply lands at an awkward time

The stock was last reported at 48.00, -8.57% below its 52-week high of 52.50. That is not the core problem on its own. The issue is that the fund is absorbing new supply while NAV has softened and liquidity remains expensive, with access still anchored around 45.40p to 42.80p.

That leaves a narrow window for a constructive setup: either the NAV slide stabilises, or the market price stays discounted enough to offset both the drift and the cost of entry.

The trade setup depends on discount-to-NAV alpha, not the VCT label

With buy 45.40p, sell 42.80p, spread 5.73%, this is more of an execution trade than a straightforward buy. Against the last reported NAV of roughly 49.0p per share, the stock only becomes more compelling if you can enter at a discount large enough to survive after income is paid. If NAV has fallen since that November statement, even the bid may overstate the true margin of safety.

What I would want to see before getting more constructive

• Entry: only attractive if I can buy close to the bid and still secure a discount to NAV that beats the built-in trading cost.
• Best catalyst: the discount remains wide while the NAV decline stabilises.
• Better catalyst: signs that NAV pressure is easing, rather than the payout continuing to rest mainly on a softer asset base.
• What breaks the setup: further NAV erosion from the last 49.0 reading, no improvement in the spread, or a narrow market that fails to create a better entry discount after the 6 July 2026 admission.

My stance remains watchlist-only: I want discount capture, not headline-driven VCT enthusiasm.