NEAR Protocol/Yen 24-Hour Market Overview

• NEARJPY opened at ¥416.5 and closed at ¥401.0, registering a 3.73% decline over 24 hours.
• Price broke down through multiple support levels, with a key 15-minute bearish engulfing pattern observed at ¥414.3.
• Volatility expanded sharply after 12:00 ET, with RSI hitting oversold territory below 30 and MACD forming bearish divergence.
• Total 24-hour volume reached 23,994.6 units, while turnover reached ¥8,360,825, indicating strong bearish conviction.
• Bollinger Bands widened significantly as price drifted toward the lower band, signaling potential for a rebound or continuation.

NEARJPY opened at ¥416.5 (12:00 ET – 1), reached a high of ¥417.9, and a low of ¥395.5 before closing at ¥401.0 at 12:00 ET today. Total volume across 24 hours was 23,994.6 units, with turnover hitting ¥8,360,825. The pair experienced a sharp bearish breakdown following a key breakout failure and strong bearish momentum in late trading hours.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a strong bearish bias throughout the session, with a decisive breakdown from ¥414.3—where a bearish engulfing pattern formed—triggering a multi-hour descent. The key support level of ¥410.0 (psychological round number) was quickly invalidated, and price pressed toward ¥400.0. A doji formed near ¥402.7, suggesting short-term hesitation, but the overall structure appears bearish, with ¥395.5 becoming the most recent low. Resistance levels at ¥414.0 and ¥417.0 were tested multiple times but failed to hold.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA (SMA) and 50-period MA (SMA) crossed bearishly, reinforcing the downtrend. Price closed below both, indicating bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period SMAs were not available due to limited data, but the trend remains decisively bearish. The 100-period SMA, if drawn, would likely intersect in the ¥410–420 range, providing further bearish context.

MACD & RSI

MACD formed a bearish divergence in the final hours of the session, with price failing to make a lower high despite a lower MACD peak. The RSI fell into oversold territory below 30 after the breakdown, raising the possibility of a short-term bounce. However, this remains speculative without confirmation from volume or price action. A rebound from 30–35 RSI levels could test ¥405–408.5 if bulls show strength, but bearish pressure appears dominant for now.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the breakdown, indicating heightened volatility. Price settled near the lower band in the final hours of the session, with a potential bounce toward the midline possible in the near term. However, a sustained close above the midline would require substantial buying pressure, which is currently absent. A break below the lower band could push price toward ¥390–395.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the breakdown at ¥414.3 and ¥409.7, confirming the bearish move. Turnover reached its highest levels after 17:15 ET and again after 04:15 ET, suggesting active bearish participation. A divergence between price and turnover was not observed, indicating strong consensus in the bearish direction. The final 15-minute bar showed a moderate volume of 407.4 units, with price closing slightly lower, reinforcing consolidation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 15-minute swing (¥417.9–¥395.5), the 61.8% retracement level aligns with ¥406.5–407.0. Price tested this area before closing the session, suggesting potential support. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement lies in the ¥415–417 range, which has failed as resistance. A further move toward the 61.8% level on the daily chart (¥395–397) could offer critical support for a potential reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy leverages bearish momentum and key Fibonacci levels to identify high-probability short entries. A potential entry would be triggered on a confirmed close below ¥399.0, with a stop placed above the 61.8% retracement at ¥406.5. The initial target would be ¥395.5, with a second target at ¥390.0 if the move gains momentum. This approach assumes continuation of the current bearish bias and validates the strength of Fibonacci levels and support clusters identified in the 24-hour analysis.