NEAR Protocol: A High-Risk Short Trade as Bearish Momentum Intensifies Below $1.82

The NEAR Protocol (NEAR) has entered a critical phase of bearish consolidation, with technical indicators and macroeconomic headwinds aligning to reinforce a high-risk short trade setup. As the price remains entrenched below the pivotal $1.82 resistance level-a psychological and historical threshold-investors are confronted with a confluence of deteriorating on-chain metrics and broader market pressures. This analysis synthesizes technical breakdowns and macroeconomic catalysts to evaluate the risks and opportunities for short-term bearish positioning.

Technical Breakdown: A Deepening Bearish Bias

NEAR's technical profile as of November 2025 paints a starkly bearish picture. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 32.83, signaling oversold conditions and a neutral-to-bearish market sentiment. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned decisively bearish, with the MACD line crossing below the 50-period signal line and the histogram trending negatively over 50 periods. These oscillator signals, coupled with the price's failure to hold above $1.82, suggest a breakdown in key support/resistance dynamics.

Key support levels now under scrutiny include $1.43, $1.39, and $1.30, while resistance remains at $1.57, $1.65, and $1.70. The 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA) further underscore the bearish bias, with the 50-day SMA at $1.70 and the 200-day SMA at $2.45. The latter represents a long-term anchor that NEAR has not approached since mid-2025, amplifying the likelihood of continued downward pressure.

On-chain metrics corroborate this narrative. The On-Balance Volume (OBV) and RSI have shown weakening momentum, with sustained sell volume reinforcing the probability of a test toward the long-term support level of $0.97. Historical price action also highlights the significance of $1.82, which has repeatedly acted as a seller-dominated threshold. Analysts project a potential 34% drawdown if the bearish trend persists, aligning with the broader market's risk-off sentiment.

Macro-Driven Selling Pressure: A Perfect Storm

Beyond technicals, macroeconomic factors are exacerbating NEAR's downward trajectory. The November 2025 crypto market reset has seen Bitcoin and Ethereum plummet by -16.90% and -21.16%, respectively, with the total market cap contracting by $1.00T. This selloff, concentrated during U.S. trading hours, has been amplified by ETF outflows: $3.48B from Bitcoin and $1.42B from Ethereum spot products. Such outflows reflect a broader flight to liquidity and underscore the fragility of speculative positions in altcoins like NEAR.

Regulatory uncertainty has further compounded the bearish environment. The U.S. government shutdown in November disrupted macroeconomic data releases, creating policy ambiguity and dampening investor confidence. While institutional infrastructure in crypto-such as Bitnomial's CFTC-regulated exchange and Coinbase's AI-driven tools-signals progress, these developments have yet to offset the sector's systemic risks.

On-chain metrics also reveal a deteriorating ecosystem. Blockchain revenues have fallen by -37%, and stablecoin supply has declined from October's peak. Ethereum's struggles with volatility, despite its foundational role in DeFi, highlight the sector's vulnerability to macroeconomic shifts. Meanwhile, gold's 7% rally in November contrasts sharply with crypto's underperformance, underscoring a risk-off environment.

Strategic Implications for Short-Term Traders

For traders considering a short position in NEAR, the technical and macroeconomic alignment presents a compelling case. The immediate breakdown below $1.82 increases the probability of a test toward $1.43 and $1.30, with a potential target at $0.97. However, this trade carries significant risks, including a potential rebound if the price reclaims $1.82 or if broader market conditions improve.

Investors must also remain vigilant to sector-specific catalysts, such as regulatory clarity or institutional adoption, which could reverse the bearish momentum. For now, the confluence of weak technicals and macroeconomic headwinds justifies a cautious, high-risk short bias, with tight stop-loss levels near $1.82 to mitigate downside exposure.