NEAR Protocol: Capital Reallocation and On-Chain Demand Fuel Path to $2.80–$2.90

The NEAR Protocol (NEAR) is poised for a potential price surge to $2.80–$2.90, driven by a unique interplay of capital reallocation and surging on-chain demand, despite a recent decline in Total Value Locked (TVL). This analysis unpacks the dynamics at play, leveraging on-chain metrics, DeFi ecosystem growth, and strategic partnerships to justify the bullish outlook.

Capital Reallocation: TVL Outflows vs. Spot Market Inflows

NEAR's TVL dropped by 12% in September 2025 to $165 million, driven by $20.5 million in outflows, according to a
CoinDesk report. However, this decline masks a critical trend: capital is shifting from long-term staking to spot market purchases. Off-chain data reveals that spot investors absorbed $21.75 million in NEAR token purchases during the week of September 26, 2025, per the CoinDesk report. This reallocation suggests a shift in investor sentiment from passive staking to active accumulation, often a precursor to price appreciation.

The divergence between TVL and spot demand is further amplified by broader DeFi trends. While NEAR's TVL lags, the global DeFi TVL rebounded to $170 billion in September 2025, signaling a maturing market with more stable yields, as
NEAR's 2024 year-in-review notes. NEAR's ecosystem, with projects like Ref Finance ($225 million TVL) and Burrow ($150 million TVL), remains a key player in this recovery according to the
CryptoQuant summary.

On-Chain Demand: A Surge in User Activity

NEAR's on-chain metrics tell a story of robust adoption. Daily active addresses and transaction volume surged by over 200% in September 2025 compared to prior periods, according to a
TradingView article. This growth is underpinned by strategic upgrades like Nightshade 2.0, which enhanced transaction throughput and reduced costs for developers, as shown in the CryptoQuant summary. Additionally, NEAR's integration with AI and cross-chain partnerships (e.g., Aptos, Shelby) has enabled real-time data processing and decentralized storage, attracting 46 million monthly active users, per NEAR's 2024 year-in-review.

The protocol's user base also outpaces competitors: in Q3 2024, NEAR reported 3 million daily active addresses—surpassing Tron (2 million) and Solana (2.4 million)—driven by a 70% quarter-over-quarter growth in AI-related dApps, according to a
NewsBTC report. This surge in utility and adoption directly correlates with increased token demand, as users and developers lock value into the ecosystem.

Strategic Positioning: AI and DeFi Synergies

NEAR's partnerships with industry giants like Nvidia and Alibaba, as reported by NewsBTC, position it as an AI-native blockchain, a niche with explosive growth potential. These collaborations enhance NEAR's capabilities in decentralized AI model training and data processing, attracting both institutional and retail capital. Meanwhile, its DeFi ecosystem—anchored by Ref Finance and Meta Pool—continues to diversify, with TVLs exceeding $130 million according to the CryptoQuant summary.

The protocol's focus on scalability and low fees (average $0.002 per transaction, per NEAR's 2024 year-in-review) further strengthens its appeal. As Ethereum's dominance in DeFi (59% TVL share, per NEAR's 2024 year-in-review) faces challenges from emerging chains like Base and Sui, NEAR's hybrid approach—combining AI innovation with DeFi infrastructure—creates a compelling value proposition.

Price Projections: When Will $2.80–$2.90 Be Reached?

The confluence of capital reallocation and on-chain demand creates a strong case for NEAR reaching $2.80–$2.90 by late 2025. Key catalysts include:
1. Continued AI Adoption: As AI dApps grow, NEAR's utility as a compute layer will drive token demand.
2. TVL Rebalancing: If spot investors maintain their $21.75 million/week absorption rate per the CoinDesk report, this could translate to a 10–15% price increase by year-end.
3. Network Effects: With 46 million monthly active users reported in NEAR's 2024 year-in-review, NEAR's network effects could amplify transaction volume and fee revenue, further justifying a higher valuation.

Risks and Considerations

While the bullish case is strong, risks include macroeconomic volatility and competition from Ethereum and Solana. However, NEAR's unique AI focus and scalable infrastructure provide a moat that differentiates it from general-purpose blockchains.