NEAR Protocol: Can 1M TPS Scalability Justify Low Daily Revenue and Price Volatility?

The blockchain industry has long grappled with the scalability trilemma-balancing security, decentralization, and throughput. NEAR Protocol, a layer-one (L1) blockchain, has made headlines for achieving 1 million TPS in a sharded benchmark test, a figure that dwarfs the 47.1 TPS it currently delivers on mainnet according to data. Yet, despite these technical milestones, NEAR's token price remains range-bound between $1.52 and $3.40 in Q4 2025 as reported, while daily revenue dipped 0.8% year-over-year to $805,614 per Q3 report. This raises a critical question: Can NEAR's scalability breakthroughs justify its underwhelming financial metrics?

The Performance-Valuation Disconnect

NEAR's 1 million TPS benchmark is a technical marvel. Conducted on Google Cloud, the test demonstrated the protocol's theoretical capacity to scale horizontally as demand grows. However, real-world TPS remains constrained by its current nine-shard mainnet configuration according to analysis. This gap between potential and practice highlights a key challenge: scalability is only valuable if adoption follows.

Meanwhile, NEAR's financials tell a different story. While daily transaction volume via NEAR Intents surged past $150 million in Q3 2025, revenue fell. This paradox-high volume but declining revenue-suggests a shift in user behavior. Average transaction fees rose to $0.0019 according to data, but total transaction value dropped, likely due to smaller transactions or a shift toward low-cost use cases like micro-payments or AI-driven dApps.

The token's price volatility further complicates the narrative. NEAR's 7-day volatility of 12.51% reflects broader market conditions, yet its price remains trapped in a descending triangle pattern as noted, a technical indicator signaling indecision. This stagnation contrasts sharply with the protocol's fundamentals, including 46 million monthly active users and AI-focused upgrades according to analysis.

Why the Market Isn't Buying In

The disconnect between NEAR's performance and valuation stems from three factors:

1. Adoption Lag: High TPS is meaningless without users. While NEAR's 46 million monthly active users according to data are impressive, many may be passive holders or using the network for low-value transactions. For revenue to scale, the protocol needs to attract high-volume dApps or enterprises willing to pay premium fees.

2. Competition from EVM Chains: NEAR's sharding model is unique, but Ethereum's rollup-centric scaling and Solana's 50,000+ TPS according to reports have captured developer mindshare. Until NEAR's ecosystem demonstrates superior use cases (e.g., AI-native applications), investors may remain skeptical.

3. Tokenomics and Market Sentiment: NEAR's price range-bound movement reflects broader crypto market apathy. Despite hitting $3.10 in early 2025, the token has failed to break out of its $1.52–$3.40 band as reported, suggesting limited institutional or retail demand. This inertia is exacerbated by the protocol's underperformance during the April–October 2025 bull run according to analysis, despite significant upgrades.

The Case for Optimism

Despite these challenges, NEAR's roadmap offers compelling long-term value. The 1 million TPS benchmark proves the protocol can scale to meet future demand according to technical analysis, a critical advantage as onchain AI and Web3 applications grow. Additionally, the $10 million in cumulative fees from Q3 2025 according to reports indicates rising network utility, even if revenue hasn't yet translated to token price gains.

Technical indicators also hint at potential. A breakout above $3.40 could trigger a rally toward $3.50 by year-end, while a breakdown below $1.52 might test support at $1.40. For patient investors, NEAR's low price relative to its scalability potential could represent a contrarian opportunity.

Conclusion: A Tale of Two Metrics

NEAR Protocol's 1 million TPS benchmark is a technical triumph, but it cannot alone justify its current valuation. The protocol must bridge the gap between performance and adoption by attracting high-value use cases and demonstrating sustainable revenue growth. For now, the market remains skeptical-a stance justified by the lack of clear catalysts for mass adoption.

However, for investors with a multi-year horizon, NEAR's scalability, active user base, and AI-focused roadmap warrant attention. The key question isn't whether 1 million TPS is impressive-it clearly is-but whether the market will eventually reward such innovation. Until then, NEAR remains a high-conviction bet on the future of blockchain scalability.