Prom/Tether Market Overview: Prolonged Pressure and Oversold Momentum

• Price closed lower amid declining momentum and bearish momentum.
• Volatility expanded during sharp sell-offs below key support levels.
• RSI oversold readings suggest potential for near-term rebound.
• Bollinger Band contraction suggests consolidation may follow.
• Volume spiked during key downward moves, supporting bearish continuation.

Market Update and Summary

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-18, Prom/Tether (PROMUSDT) opened at $11.973, reached a high of $12.055, and closed at $10.552—signaling continued bearish pressure after a volatile 24-hour session. The total volume was 282,495.98, and the notional turnover amounted to $3,179,532.96. The price declined significantly during late overnight and early morning hours, confirming renewed bearish control.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern during the early part of the session, confirming a breakdown from mid-$11.90s. A sharp sell-off to the $11.60 level, followed by a second wave to $11.39, and a further decline to $10.95, established key support levels. A strong bearish trend emerged after 00:00 ET, with a doji forming near $10.66 as a potential reversal sign. However, with prices below 10.70, bearish bias remains intact.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trended downward, with the 20 MA crossing below the 50 MA in late overnight hours, signaling bearish momentum. For the daily timeframe, the 50-day moving average sits at $11.50, with the 100-day at $12.00 and the 200-day at $12.20. The price has now closed well below all three, reinforcing bearish control.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained negative throughout the session, with a large bearish histogram forming during the early morning sell-off. RSI dropped to oversold territory below 30 during the 06:00–07:00 ET timeframe, hinting at a potential bounce. However, RSI failed to rebound above 40 in the following hours, indicating weak buying interest and continued bearish momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a period of expansion during the morning sell-off, with prices falling sharply below the lower band. The band width increased from 0.3% to 1.5% during the session, indicating heightened volatility. Prices are currently well below the lower band, suggesting oversold conditions and potential for a retest of the $10.60–$10.65 area before finding support.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during key breakdowns, particularly in the early morning hours, confirming the bearish move below $11.80 and again below $11.39. Notional turnover also spiked during these declines, validating price action. There were no notable divergences between price and volume, which suggests strong continuation potential in the near term.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the most recent swing from $11.97 to $10.95, the 38.2% level is at $11.46 and the 61.8% level is at $11.15. Price is currently testing the 78.6% retracement at $10.80 and appears to be forming a base near the 88.6% level at $10.67. If the price fails to hold above $10.65, a deeper pullback toward the 100% level at $10.54 could be in play.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy for PROMUSDT might focus on oversold RSI levels below 30 combined with volume confirmation during key support levels. For instance, buying on RSI dips below 30 with a volume spike above the 10-period moving average might provide a short-term rebound opportunity. This could be tested in a 15-minute or 1-hour timeframe, with a 2% stop-loss and a 3% take-profit target. The current chart suggests that such a strategy may perform better during consolidation phases rather than during strong downtrends.