Prologis Slumps 3.10% as Death Cross and Bearish Indicators Signal Extended Downtrend

Prologis (PLD) declined 3.10% to close at $104.78 in the latest session, with trading volume of 4.93 million shares. This analysis synthesizes multiple technical indicators to assess the stock's current position and potential trajectory.
Candlestick Theory
Key support emerges near $104.00–$104.70, tested in late May (2025-05-21 low: $104.67; 2025-05-23 low: $104.04). The breach below $106.00 invalidated prior consolidation, turning this level into immediate resistance. Additional resistance tiers exist at $108.60 (June 24 high) and $110.65 (May 19 peak), reflecting a descending structure of lower highs since the $112.95 yearly high on May 12.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day SMA ($108.50 approximated), 100-day SMA ($110.30 approximated), and 200-day SMA ($112.80 approximated) all reside above the current price, signaling persistent bearish pressure. Crucially, the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA in mid-June—a "death cross"—reinforcing longer-term downtrend expectations. Price rejection near the descending 50-day SMA in late June further validated bearish momentum.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD remains entrenched in negative territory, with the MACD line (-1.20 approximated) below the signal line. Histograms show widening negative momentum following the June 25 sell-off. Concurrently, KDJ readings (K: 18, D: 22, J: 10 approximated) indicate oversold conditions. However, this aligns with prevailing downtrend dynamics, where oversold signals often precede only tactical bounces rather than reversals.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands expanded sharply on June 25, reflecting volatility breakout to the downside. Price closed near the lower band ($103.90 approximated), typically a short-term oversold signal. The expansion ended a multi-session bandwidth contraction, suggesting acceleration of the bearish trend. Sustained trading below the lower band may foreshadow extended declines unless reclaimed.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume surged 65% to 4.93 million shares on June 25, confirming bearish conviction. Prior upswings lacked comparable volume support—June 20’s 0.58% gain occurred on 6.74 million shares, but subsequent rallies dwindled with sub-3-million-share volume. This divergence implies weak buyer commitment and reinforces the sustainability of the current downtrend.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (28 approximated) dipped into oversold territory, reflecting acute selling pressure. While this may precipitate short-term consolidation or minor rebounds, the indicator’s reliability is muted in strong trends. Similar RSI troughs in late May ($104.04 low) failed to catalyze durable recoveries, underscoring its role as a warning rather than reversal signal.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fib levels to the May 12 high ($112.95) and May 23 low ($104.04) yields retracement supports at $107.44 (61.8%) and $106.89 (50%). The breach of both on June 25 confirms bearish momentum acceleration. Key downside targets now align with the $104.04–$100.82 zone, encompassing the May 23 low and the 123.6% extension level. A decisive break below $104.00 could trigger additional downside toward $100.82.
Confluence and Divergence Observations
Confluence of bearish signals is pronounced: Price rests below all key SMAs with death cross confirmation, MACD momentum is negative, volume validates breakdowns, and volatility expansion aligns with bearish Bollinger Band signals. Oversold RSI and KDJ readings offer minor counterpoints but lack reversal corroboration. A notable divergence is absent, as momentum oscillators align with price trajectory. Probabilistically, the confluence favors downside continuation, though oversold conditions may foster temporary stabilization near $104.00 support. A sustained recovery above $106.00 resistance would be necessary to invalidate the immediate bearish structure.