Project Eleven Launches $84,100 Quantum Bitcoin Cracking Competition

Project Eleven, a quantum computing research firm, has initiated a competition to assess the potential threat that quantum computing poses to Bitcoin. The competition, launched on April 16, offers 1 Bitcoin (BTC) to the individual or team that can crack the largest chunk of a Bitcoin key using a quantum computer within the next year. The initiative, dubbed the “Q-Day Prize,” aims to evaluate the urgency of the quantum threat to Bitcoin and to develop quantum-proof solutions to secure the cryptocurrency over the long term.

Project Eleven highlighted that over 10 million Bitcoin addresses have exposed public keys, and the steady progress of quantum computing necessitates a rigorous benchmarking of this threat. The firm noted that more than 6 million Bitcoin, valued at around $500 billion, could be at risk if quantum computers become powerful enough to crack elliptic curve cryptography (ECC) keys. Participants in the competition can register as individuals or as a team and have until April 5, 2026, to complete the task. The prize winner will receive 1 Bitcoin, currently worth $84,100.

The mission of the competition is to run Shor's algorithm on a quantum computer to crack as many bits of a Bitcoin key as possible, serving as a proof-of-concept that the technique could scale to crack a full, 256-bit Bitcoin key once the necessary compute power is available. Project Eleven emphasized that no classical shortcuts or hybrid tricks are allowed, and the focus is on pure quantum power. Even cracking a 3-bit key would be considered significant progress, as no ECC key used in real-world applications has ever been cracked.

Project Eleven pointed out that several online platforms offer quantum computing access, such as Amazon Web Services and IBM. The firm noted that current estimates suggest around 2,000 logical qubits (error-corrected) would be enough to break a 256-bit ECC key. IBM’s Heron chip and Google’s Willow can currently handle 156 and 105 qubits, respectively, which is significant enough to cause concern. Project Eleven believes that a 2,000-qubit quantum system could be developed within the next decade.

Bitcoin cypherpunk Jameson Lopp recently stated that the question of how concerned the industry should be about quantum computing is currently unanswerable. Lopp acknowledged that while it is far from a crisis, given the difficulty in changing Bitcoin, it is worth starting to seriously discuss the issue. In February, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino expressed confidence that quantum-proof Bitcoin addresses will be implemented well before any serious threat emerges, acknowledging that the concern is well-founded.