Progressive's Sharp Intraday Slide: What's Behind the 3.85% Drop?

Summary
• PGR plunges 3.85% to $222.89 amid November 2025 earnings report
• Net income declines 5% YoY, combined ratio rises to 87.1
• Options chain shows heightened bearish positioning ahead of $220 support

The Progressive (PGR) is under pressure in a volatile intraday session, trading 3.85% below its previous close. The stock’s sharp decline coincides with the release of November 2025 earnings, which revealed a 5% year-over-year drop in net income and a widening combined ratio. With the price testing key technical levels and options data signaling bearish sentiment, the market is recalibrating its expectations for the insurance giant.

Earnings Disappointment and Realized Gains Decline Weigh on PGR
Progressive’s November 2025 earnings report delivered a mixed bag, with a 11% YoY increase in net premiums written but a 5% decline in net income to $958M. The 82% drop in pretax net realized gains on securities to $32M—a critical line item for capital gains—sent shockwaves through the stock. The combined ratio of 87.1, up from 85.6 a year earlier, signaled margin compression in a competitive insurance market. These figures, coupled with Mizuho’s neutral rating initiation, triggered a selloff as investors recalibrated risk-reward profiles.

Bearish Options and ETF Positioning: Navigating PGR’s Volatility
• 200-day MA: $252.64 (well above current price)
• RSI: 57.5 (neutral but bearish bias)
• MACD: 2.26 (bullish divergence but signal line at 1.38)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $222.89 (near lower band at $219.99)
• Key support: $222.65–$223.20 (30D support)
• Resistance: $245.71–$247.46 (200D resistance)

PGR’s technicals suggest a bearish near-term setup, with the stock trading below its 30D and 100D moving averages. The RSI hovering near 57.5 indicates a neutral zone but aligns with the intraday selloff. The options chain reveals aggressive bearish positioning, particularly in the December 26 and January 2 series. Two standout options for short-term volatility play:

• PGR20251226P220 (Put, $220 strike, Dec 26):
- IV: 28.47% (moderate)
- Delta: -0.6367 (high sensitivity to price drop)
- Theta: -0.4649 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0356 (responsive to price swings)
- Turnover: 609 (liquidity)
- Leverage: 36.67%
- Why it stands out: This put option offers high leverage and gamma, ideal for capitalizing on a potential breakdown below $220. A 5% downside to $211.75 would yield a payoff of $9.25 per contract.

• PGR20260102P220 (Put, $220 strike, Jan 2):
- IV: 62.06% (elevated)
- Delta: -0.4262 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.2045 (slower decay)
- Gamma: 0.0131 (lower responsiveness)
- Turnover: 10,150 (high liquidity)
- Leverage: 22.00%
- Why it stands out: The January 2 put offers extended time decay and high turnover, making it a safer bet for a longer-term bearish play. A 5% drop would yield a $9.25 payoff, but the higher IV provides cushion against volatility compression.

Action Insight: Aggressive bears should prioritize PGR20251226P220 for immediate volatility, while PGR20260102P220 suits a more conservative, time-extended approach. Watch for a breakdown below $222.65 to trigger a cascade of stop-loss orders.

Backtest The Progressive Stock Performance
The Procter & Gamble Company (PGR) has demonstrated resilience following a notable intraday plunge of -4% in 2022. In the subsequent years, PGR has shown positive performance, with win rates and returns varying across different time frames:1. Short-Term Performance: The 3-day win rate is 58.21%, indicating that approximately half of the time, PGR's stock price recovered within 3 days after the plunge. The average 3-day return is 0.33%, suggesting a modest recovery in the short term.2. Medium-Term Performance: The 10-day win rate is slightly higher at 58.62%, with an average 10-day return of 0.92%. This indicates a higher probability of recovery over a slightly longer period.3. Long-Term Performance: The 30-day win rate is 60.38%, with an average 30-day return of 2.51%. This suggests that PGR's stock price tended to recover and even surpass its pre-plunge levels over a longer period.4. Maximum Return: The maximum return observed following the plunge was 4.62%, which occurred on day 59 after the event. This highlights the potential for significant recovery and growth in the months following the initial drop.In conclusion, while PGR experienced a substantial intraday plunge in 2022, the subsequent performance indicates a generally positive trend in the years following the event. Investors may consider these findings when assessing the potential risks and rewards of investing in PGR.

PGR at Crossroads: Key Levels and Sector Signals to Watch
Progressive’s intraday selloff reflects a confluence of earnings disappointment and sector-specific headwinds. While the stock’s technicals suggest a bearish near-term bias, the options market is pricing in significant downside potential. Investors should monitor the $222.65 support level and the 200D MA at $252.64 as critical inflection points. Meanwhile, sector leader Allstate (ALL) is down 0.54%, signaling broader insurance sector caution. For PGR, a sustained close below $220 could validate a deeper correction, making the PGR20251226P220 a high-conviction trade. Watch for $220 breakdown or regulatory reaction.