Progressive (PGR) Shares Drop 5.28% on Bearish Engulfing Pattern and Death Cross as Oversold RSI Hints at Potential Bounce from $204.46 Support

Candlestick Theory
The recent 5.28% decline in The Progressive (PGR) on January 13, 2026, forms a bearish engulfing pattern, suggesting strong downward momentum. Key support levels emerge around $204.46 (recent low) and $209.08 (December 7 low), while resistance aligns with the January 12 high of $217.50. A potential bullish reversal may occur if prices retest the $204.46 level with higher volume, but a break below this could target the next support at $203.00, based on Fibonacci retracement levels.

Moving Average Theory

The 50-day moving average (approximately $223.00) has crossed below the 200-day MA ($235.00), forming a bearish "death cross." The 100-day MA ($227.00) further reinforces the downtrend, as the current price ($205.06) trades below all three, indicating bearish control. Short-term traders may watch for a retest of the 50-day MA as a potential entry point, though a sustained close above $223.00 would signal weakening bearish momentum.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram has turned negative sharply, with the line crossing below the signal line, confirming bearish momentum. The stochastic oscillator (KDJ) shows an oversold reading (K at 15, D at 20), suggesting a potential near-term rebound. However, the divergence between the K line and price action—where K fails to rise despite a minor bounce—hints at weak conviction in the oversold condition.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded following the recent selloff, with the price near the lower band ($204.46–$215.99 range). A break above the mid-band ($210.00) could trigger a mean reversion trade, while a continued slide below the lower band may indicate prolonged weakness. The 20-day volatility (ATR) of ~$6.50 underscores the heightened risk of extended moves.

Volume-Price Relationship
The recent 5.28% drop coincided with a surge in volume (4.09 million shares), validating the bearish move. However, subsequent sessions show declining volume despite further declines, signaling waning bearish conviction. A surge in volume on a rebound above $210.00 could confirm a short-term bottom, whereas muted volume would suggest lingering seller dominance.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The 14-day RSI stands at 25, confirming oversold territory. While this may attract buyers, caution is warranted due to the RSI’s divergence from price action—RSI has not formed a lower low despite the January 9 low. A close above 35 would suggest improving momentum, but a failure to break above 40 may prolong the consolidation phase.

Fibonacci Retracement

Applying Fibonacci levels to the December 2025 high ($283.01) to the January 2026 low ($204.46), key retracement levels include 61.8% ($235.00) and 78.6% ($245.00). The current price ($205.06) aligns with the 23.6% retracement level, indicating a potential support zone. A break below $204.46 would target the 38.2% level ($193.00), but this scenario remains low-probability without a surge in bearish volume.

Conclusion

The technical landscape for The Progressive highlights a confluence of bearish signals—death cross, bearish engulfing patterns, and oversold RSI—yet divergences in stochastic and RSI suggest potential for a short-term rebound. Traders should monitor volume dynamics and Fibonacci support levels for entry points, while cautioning against overreliance on oversold conditions without confirmatory price action.