Private Equity's Big Four See Surge in Positive Sentiment in Q2 2025 Earnings

Private equity's Big Four firms reported a surge in positive sentiment during Q2 2025, with executives citing steady fundraising, an improving M&A outlook, and the expected opening of 401(k) retirement savings accounts to private equity fund investments. This shift in sentiment reflects a more optimistic outlook for the industry, despite ongoing market uncertainties.

Private equity's Big Four firms—Blackstone Inc., Apollo Global Management Inc., KKR & Co. Inc., and The Carlyle Group Inc.—experienced a significant surge in positive sentiment during the second quarter of 2025. Executives from these firms cited steady fundraising, an improving M&A outlook, and the expected opening of 401(k) retirement savings accounts to private equity fund investments as key drivers of this optimism.

According to an S&P Global Market Intelligence analysis, the net positivity scores for the Big Four firms' second-quarter earnings calls were higher than the prior-quarter marks. This improvement in sentiment was more pronounced than the increase in average net positivity for S&P 500 constituents [1].

Fundraising momentum also bolstered the confidence of Big Four executives. Apollo Global Management reported $61 billion in inflows during the second quarter, while KKR & Co. Inc. experienced a 14% year-over-year expansion in assets under management (AUM) to $839.61 billion. Blackstone, the largest of the Big Four firms, maintains over $1.2 trillion in AUM [1].

The potential opening of 401(k) retirement savings accounts to private equity investments, as outlined in a Trump executive order, further fueled optimism. This move could redirect a portion of the more than $12 trillion in US retirement savings to private equity funds [2].

However, despite the positive outlook, some private equity funds underperformed. Apollo President James Zelter and Carlyle CEO Harvey Schwartz acknowledged that certain vintages of their flagship buyout funds did not meet expectations [1].

Carlyle's stock performance was the strongest among the Big Four firms, with a total return of 26.4% between January 1 and August 6, 2025, compared to the S&P 500's total return of 8.7% [1].

The shift in sentiment reflects a more optimistic outlook for the private equity industry, despite ongoing market uncertainties such as tariff-related uncertainty and macroeconomic turbulence. The Big Four firms navigated these challenges and demonstrated resilience, setting the stage for continued growth and investment opportunities in the coming quarters.

References:
[1] https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/articles/2025/8/surge-in-positive-sentiment-for-private-equitys-big-four-in-q2-2025-91990123
[2] https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/cryptocurrency/trump-opens-the-door-for-private-equity-and-crypto-as-401k-retirement-plan-options/articleshow/123179205.cms