Prime Day Sales Predicted to Reach $23.8 Billion, with Generative AI Set to Play a Larger Role

Adobe estimates that Amazon's Prime Day sale will drive $23.8 billion in online spending across US e-commerce retailers, a 28.4% YoY growth. Mobile sales will account for 52.5% of sales, while generative AI traffic will increase 3,200% YoY. The use of gen AI for shopping is expected to continue growing as consumers see value in using AI for research, product recommendations, and finding deals.

Adobe Analytics has forecasted that Amazon's Prime Day sale, set to run from July 8 to 11, will drive $23.8 billion in online spending across US e-commerce retailers. This represents a 28.4% year-over-year (YoY) growth compared to last year's sales [1]. The extended four-day event is expected to surpass the previous two-day Prime Day sales, which totaled $14.2 billion in 2024 [1].

Mobile sales are projected to account for 52.5% of total sales during the event, highlighting the increasing importance of mobile commerce [1]. Additionally, generative AI traffic is anticipated to surge by 3,200% YoY, indicating a significant increase in consumer adoption of AI tools for shopping [1]. This trend reflects the growing value consumers place on AI for tasks such as research, product recommendations, and deal hunting [1].

The use of generative AI in shopping is expected to continue growing, as consumers find it beneficial for finding deals and discovering products quickly. According to a survey by VTEX, 46% of consumers have used generative AI tools to search for products and gift ideas, with 89% finding it helpful [2]. Younger generations, particularly Gen Z, are leading the adoption of these technologies, with 70% of Gen Z respondents having used generative AI for product searches [2].

Adobe's report also provides insights into the expected discounts and spending categories. Discounts are anticipated to remain high, with clothing seeing the deepest discounts at 24% compared to 20% last year, while electronics are expected to have discounts of 22% [1]. The report forecasts that consumers will "trade up" to higher-ticket items, driven by the steep discounts, with categories such as electronics, sporting goods, and appliances seeing significant increases in the share of most expensive goods [1].

The event is also expected to boost back-to-school shopping, with categories like backpacks, lunchboxes, and computers seeing substantial growth. Adobe expects a 225% increase in online sales for backpacks and lunchboxes, a 200% increase for kids' apparel, and a 180% increase for general school/office supplies [1].

The Prime Day event is set to be a significant driver of e-commerce sales, with retailers leveraging discounts and AI tools to attract budget-conscious consumers. The extended event and the increasing use of generative AI reflect the evolving shopping habits of consumers, who are increasingly turning to technology to find the best deals and products.

References:
[1] https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/amazon-prime-day-sale-2025-deals-in-usa-dates-discounts/articleshow/122303291.cms
[2] https://chainstoreage.com/generational-divide-remains-when-it-comes-gen-ai-shopping-tools