Primark's Bold U.S. Expansion Amid Tariff Uncertainty: A Calculated Gamble or Strategic Masterstroke?
3min read As Primark plots its aggressive U.S. expansion—aiming for 60 stores by 2026—its leadership has framed the push as a non-negotiable pillar of its long-term growth strategy, even as tariff volatility and geopolitical tensions loom large. With over $90 million invested in 2025 alone for new distribution centers and flagship stores, the retailer’s confidence hinges on its ability to navigate trade headwinds while capitalizing on competitors’ struggles.
Ask Aime: How will Primark's aggressive U.S. expansion impact the retail industry in 2026?
The Expansion Playbook
Primark’s U.S. expansion is both geographic and strategic. In 2025, the company secured leases for 11 new stores in states like South Carolina (first-ever location), Texas, Georgia, Indiana, and Michigan. By late 2025, it had 29 U.S. stores, with plans to open two more by year-end, including a flagship in New York’s Herald Square. The goal is to serve “value-seekers” through affordable staples like $10 denim and $4 tees, while leveraging licensed brands (e.g., Marvel, NFL) to attract broad demographics.
Primark US President Kevin Tulip emphasized this dual focus: “Americans are seeking value… our expansion represents our commitment to bringing quality products at affordable prices to as many shoppers as possible.” The retailer’s strategy also includes sustainability, with goals to use 100% recycled or sustainably sourced materials by 2030 and slash carbon emissions—a key ESG pitch to investors.
Tariffs: A Double-Edged Sword
The elephant in the room is tariffs. Under President Trump’s policies, Primark has absorbed “hits” but sees opportunities in competitors’ pain. The termination of the “de minimis” duty exemption (allowing $800+ shipments to face tariffs) has raised costs for online rivals like Shein and Temu, which relied on this loophole to undercut prices.
ABF CEO George Weston noted, “I wonder if some Americans might start going back to shopping centers to find value there.” This shift could drive foot traffic to Primark’s physical stores, where prices remain anchored by its vertically integrated supply chain. However, geopolitical risks—such as China rerouting low-cost goods to Europe due to U.S. tariffs—remain unresolved.
The Numbers Underlying the Strategy
- Sales Resilience: Despite a 6% drop in UK sales in early 2025 (due to weak consumer sentiment), Primark’s global sales rose 1% thanks to strong performances in the U.S., Spain, and France.
- Financial Commitment: The $90 million 2025 investment included a new Florida distribution center, critical for efficient U.S. operations.
- Market Share Ambition: U.S. sales currently account for just 5% of Primark’s total revenue, but the 60-store target aims to lift this significantly.
Risks and Reward
The risks are clear. Tariff policies could intensify under a new administration, and competitors may adapt faster to new regulations. Primark’s U.S. expansion also competes with established players like Walmart and Target, which have deeper market penetration.
Yet the upside is compelling. The U.S. fast-fashion market is underserved by Primark’s scale, with its “value at every turn” model resonating in regions like the South and Midwest. Analysts at Hargreaves Lansdown highlight that the retailer’s “true value” proposition—combining affordability, quality, and sustainability—is a rare combination in today’s volatile retail landscape.
Conclusion: A Strategic Gamble with High Upside
Primark’s U.S. expansion is a high-stakes bet, but the data supports its potential. With a 1% global sales growth cushioning its UK struggles, and its 60-store target within reach by 2026, the retailer is positioning itself to capitalize on a market where value-driven shopping is surging. While tariffs and trade wars pose risks, Primark’s leadership has demonstrated a knack for turning regulatory headwinds into opportunities—most recently by absorbing costs while competitors reel from policy shifts.
For investors, the key question is whether Primark’s execution can outpace uncertainty. If it can, the payoff could be substantial: a 5%-plus revenue driver from the U.S. market, bolstered by ESG credibility and a loyal customer base. The stock, currently trading at £35.50 (down 10% YTD due to broader economic concerns), could rebound sharply if Primark hits its 2026 store target and maintains its 1%-plus global growth trajectory.
In a sector where few retailers thrive across borders, Primark’s gamble may just redefine the rules of the game.
