Prediction Markets Outpace Polls, Trump’s Odds Hiked to 97% on Polymarket

On-chain prediction markets have emerged as a dynamic and rapidly growing segment of the financial and crypto ecosystems. Platforms like Polymarket have played a central role in this evolution, with cumulative trading volumes surpassing $1 billion and nearly 30,000 markets created to date. These markets cover a broad range of topics, from political events to technological developments, and have demonstrated a unique ability to aggregate collective intelligence into actionable price signals. In particular, Polymarket has shown its predictive power by accurately forecasting Donald Trump’s chances of winning the 2024 U.S. election earlier and more precisely than mainstream media. During the election, the platform priced Trump’s probability of victory at 97%—well ahead of the 50/50 odds suggested by traditional polling—highlighting the potential of prediction markets to serve as a superior alternative to conventional polling methods [1].

The renewed interest in Polymarket has coincided with significant volume spikes, particularly in the lead-up to major events. For example, during the 2024 election, Polymarket’s trading volume surged by over 300%, demonstrating growing adoption and public confidence in its on-chain model [1]. The platform’s ability to transform static bets into tradable positions using smart contracts is a key differentiator. Unlike traditional betting, where wagers are locked until settlement, Polymarket allows users to adjust their positions in real time, enabling dynamic trading based on new information or shifting market sentiment [1].

Polymarket’s on-chain model operates through a structured mechanism. When a market is created, the smart contract generates tradable shares corresponding to the event’s outcomes. Users can then buy or sell these shares on a decentralized exchange, with prices reflecting the collective assessment of probabilities. For instance, in a market asking whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, the price of “Yes” and “No” shares evolves as traders buy and sell, with the share prices signaling the perceived likelihood of each outcome [1]. This creates a transparent and trustless system where traders can profit from shifts in market sentiment without relying on a centralized authority.

The market’s structure allows for both volatility and flexibility. Suppose a market initially assigns a 40% probability to a rate cut, with “Yes” shares priced at 0.40 USDC. If new economic data increases the perceived likelihood of a cut, the price of “Yes” shares may rise to 0.75, allowing early buyers to sell for a profit or lock in gains by closing their positions [1]. This real-time adjustability is a key advantage over traditional betting platforms, where users are typically unable to modify their wagers once placed.

Competition within the prediction market space has intensified, with platforms like Kalshi emerging as notable rivals to Polymarket. Kalshi, which is fully regulated under the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), has attracted significant attention for its compliance-driven approach and recent strategic moves, including the appointment of a young crypto influencer to a senior role and partnerships with major firms [1]. However, this regulatory alignment has also drawn criticism from segments of the crypto community, who argue that such a centralized model is incompatible with the decentralized ethos of blockchain.

In a recent development, both Polymarket and Kalshi introduced new markets betting on whether President Trump will remain in office through year-end 2025. These markets, which priced Trump’s chances of leaving before 2026 at between 6% and 10%, saw a surge in volume following viral rumors about his health [2]. Despite Trump’s public reassurances, traders on both platforms placed over $500,000 in combined bets, reflecting the platforms’ growing influence in capturing and monetizing public sentiment [2]. The emergence of such speculative markets underscores the evolving role of prediction platforms in gauging and trading on real-world uncertainties.

As the space continues to mature, prediction markets are increasingly being viewed not just as speculative tools but as valuable instruments for price discovery, risk hedging, and information validation. With platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi pushing the boundaries of transparency and accessibility, the future of prediction markets appears poised for further expansion. Whether through on-chain innovations or regulatory alignment, the industry is demonstrating a unique ability to harness market-based intelligence in ways that traditional financial models struggle to replicate.

Source: [1] The Golden Age of Prediction Markets: Polymarket Rages ... (https://onekey.so/blog/ecosystem/the-golden-age-of-prediction-markets-polymarket-rages-kalshi-arrives/) [2] Prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi are cashing in ... (https://investinglive.com/news/prediction-markets-polymarket-and-kalshi-are-cashing-in-on-trump-leaving-office-bets-20250903/)