Prediction Markets Indicate High Odds of Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei Stepping Down Before End of 2026

Prediction markets show increased odds of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stepping down or being removed by the end of 2026. As protests continue and economic conditions worsen, traders are betting on a leadership change after more than three decades in power.

The probability of Khamenei's exit has risen sharply. On Polymarket, the odds of his departure by December 31 are now at 65%, up from 30% in late December. Similar trends appear on Kalshi, where the likelihood of his exit before 2027 stands at 66%.

Separate contracts also highlight the timeline for potential change. The odds of Khamenei being removed by January 31 are at 24%, by March 31 at 46%, and by June 30 at 53%. These figures reflect growing uncertainty and volatility in Iran's political landscape.

Why the Move Happened

Political unrest and economic turmoil have been key drivers behind the rising odds. Hundreds have reportedly been killed and thousands arrested in Iran amid the unrest. Inflation has reached 45%, and the rial has collapsed, making basic goods unaffordable for many.

The country's political system is under increasing strain. Protests have continued to escalate, and the government has struggled to maintain control. The economic crisis is deepening, with a lack of foreign investment and currency devaluation compounding the problem.

How Markets Responded

Prediction markets have responded to the growing instability. Investors are adjusting their positions in line with new information and expectations of change. The increased odds indicate that traders see a higher likelihood of a leadership transition within the year.

Other financial markets have also been affected. The geopolitical uncertainty has influenced investment decisions, with a shift toward safer assets and a recalibration of risk exposure.

What Analysts Are Watching

Analysts are closely monitoring developments in Iran. The resolution of contracts on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi will depend on credible reporting of any leadership changes or political shifts.

The situation remains fluid. While the odds have increased, the actual timeline and nature of any transition are still unclear. Analysts are tracking both domestic and international factors that could influence the situation.