Prediction Markets Break Mainstream as Polymarket Hits $20B Trading Mark

Polymarket, the digital prediction market platform, has surpassed $20 billion in total trading volume, signaling a major milestone for the industry as it prepares to launch its native POLY token and distribute it via an airdrop to users, according to a CoinMarketCap report. The platform, which allows participants to wager on real-world outcomes ranging from political events to corporate earnings, has seen explosive growth since regaining U.S. regulatory approval earlier this year, according to a Yahoo Finance report.

The surge in trading activity comes amid a broader valuation boom for prediction markets. In September 2025, Polymarket was reported to be considering a $9 billion valuation, a sharp increase from its $1 billion valuation in June 2025, according to a CoinDesk report. This growth has been fueled by regulatory clarity, including the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) green light for the platform to operate in the U.S. after a two-year ban, as reported by CoinDesk. Competitor Kalshi, which offers similar real-money event contracts, has also seen its valuation climb to $10–$12 billion, according to a Seeking Alpha report.

Polymarket's expansion is further bolstered by strategic partnerships. The platform recently struck a deal to serve as a clearinghouse for DraftKings Inc., a major player in sports betting, as the latter moves into prediction markets, reported in a Bloomberg article. Additionally, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, invested $2 billion in Polymarket, valuing it at around $8 billion, Bloomberg reported. This partnership includes data-sharing agreements and future tokenization initiatives, Bloomberg added.

The POLY token, set to launch after Polymarket's U.S. relaunch, is expected to play a central role in the platform's ecosystem. Chief Marketing Officer Matthew Modabber confirmed the token's development and an upcoming airdrop, emphasizing that the token will prioritize "true utility, longevity, and permanence" in a Yahoo Finance interview. While specific mechanics remain unannounced, Modabber hinted at a model inspired by Hyperliquid, a non-custodial exchange that launched a token without short-term incentives. The airdrop is likely to reward active users based on trading volume, a common practice in decentralized finance, according to a TheCoinrise article.

Regulatory challenges persist, however. U.S. lawmakers continue to debate whether prediction markets should be classified as derivatives or gambling, with outcomes potentially affecting Polymarket's token rollout, according to a Live Bitcoin News piece. Despite this, the platform's alignment with ICE and its recent regulatory clearance position it to navigate these hurdles, as Bloomberg reported.

As Polymarket prepares for its next phase, the platform's growth reflects a broader shift in financial markets. With trading volumes exceeding $2 billion in a single week during October 2025, according to Seeking Alpha, prediction markets are increasingly seen as a mainstream asset class, attracting both retail and institutional investors, TheCoinrise noted.