Post-Tariff Truce: The 90-Day Window to Profit from Supply Chain Rebound

The U.S.-China tariff truce, effective until May 31, 2025, has created a critical 90-day window to capitalize on restored trade flows and supply chain normalization. With tariffs slashed by over 100 percentage points and non-tariff barriers suspended, sectors like logistics, tech, and luxury goods are primed for a rebound. However, strategic sectors such as semiconductors and rare earths remain vulnerable to lingering risks. Here’s how to position your portfolio to profit while navigating the truce’s expiration clock.

Logistics: The Immediate Winners

The truce’s logistical provisions—streamlined customs, digital documentation, and blockchain-based tracking—are a direct catalyst for Maersk (APM) and other shipping giants. Reduced delays and $2.3 billion in infrastructure upgrades underpin a surge in global trade volumes.

Why now?
- Volume rebound: Lower tariffs mean higher demand for shipping goods across the Pacific.
- Cost efficiency: Harmonized customs processes reduce operational overheads.
- Infrastructure boost: Upgrades to rail and maritime corridors in high-traffic regions (e.g., Southeast Asia) will cut transit times.

Action: Buy Maersk and logistics ETFs like Global X Logistics ETF (CHX) now. The truce’s infrastructure fund and real-time tracking mandates create long-term tailwinds.

Tech Supply Chains: Tariff Relief Meets Innovation

The truce removes tariffs on critical semiconductor components, easing pressure on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) and NVIDIA (NVDA). Lower costs for chips and ICT infrastructure mean faster production cycles for consumer electronics and automotive firms.

The catch:
- Safeguard clause: A 15% annual output decline in any signatory nation’s semiconductor industry could trigger tariff reimposition.
- Legacy equipment exclusion: U.S. firms still face tariffs on older semiconductor tools, limiting full recovery.

Action: Overweight TSM and NVDA but avoid pure-play semiconductor equipment stocks like ASML (ASML) until the truce is extended beyond 90 days.

Consumer Discretionary: Luxury’s Turn to Shine

Lower tariffs on Chinese imports mean U.S. luxury brands like LVMH (LVMUY) and Tiffany (TIF) can slash prices or expand margins. Meanwhile, Chinese consumers—no longer penalized by 145% tariffs—will repatriate spending from overseas markets.

Why now?
- Price competitiveness: Lower tariffs on leather goods, watches, and jewelry make U.S. brands more attractive in China.
- Tourism rebound: Easier cross-border trade could accelerate Chinese tourists’ return to U.S. shopping hubs.

Action: Load up on luxury stocks and ETFs like Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY).

The Risks: Semiconductors and Rare Earths Remain Traps

While the truce is a net positive, two sectors are still ticking time bombs:

1. Semiconductors: The safeguard clause leaves TSM and Applied Materials (AMAT) exposed to sudden tariff spikes if any nation’s chip output collapses.
2. Rare earths: Though export controls are suspended, China retains the power to reinstate them, threatening U.S. defense and tech supply chains.

Action: Short rare earth miners like MP Materials (MP) until structural trade issues are resolved.

The Clock is Ticking: Act Before the Truce Expires

The 90-day window is a “now or never” opportunity to profit from restored trade flows. While the truce’s expiration could reignite tariffs, the next 90 days are a buyer’s paradise for logistics, tech, and luxury stocks.

Final Playbook:
1. Buy: Maersk, LVMH, TSM (with a tight stop-loss on semiconductors).
2. Avoid: Rare earths, semiconductor equipment stocks.
3. Monitor: U.S.-China negotiations for a permanent deal by May 31.

The truce is a tactical pause, not a cure. Seize the rebound—but don’t miss the exit before the clock runs out.