Post-Crisis Resilience and Safe-Haven Assets: How U.S. Mass Shootings Shape Investor Behavior

The United States has experienced a surge in mass shootings over the past decade, with 2025 marking one of the most violent years on record. These events have not only exacted a human toll but also reshaped economic and psychological landscapes. While the immediate financial impact on firearm manufacturers is well-documented—stock prices of companies like Sturm, Ruger and Smith & Wesson typically decline by 22.4 to 49.5 basis points per day following such incidents [1]—the broader implications for safe-haven assets remain underexplored. This article argues that the societal uncertainty and long-term anxiety generated by mass shootings are subtly but significantly influencing investor behavior toward gold and government bonds, even if direct correlations are not yet empirically established.

The Ripple Effects of Mass Shootings

Mass shootings create a dual crisis: immediate trauma and long-term economic disruption. A 2025 study in Marketing Science found that these events result in an estimated $27 billion in annual retail revenue losses, with businesses within a 1.25-mile radius experiencing an average 19% drop in sales [2]. Nonessential retailers, such as apparel stores, face steeper declines than essential services like grocery chains. This localized economic shock amplifies societal anxiety, which, in turn, may drive investors to seek stability in safe-haven assets.

Psychological impacts further compound the economic fallout. Research shows that mass shootings reduce community wellbeing by 27 percentage points and emotional health by 13 percentage points within four weeks of an incident [3]. Survivors of school shootings, in particular, exhibit higher rates of antidepressant use and lower educational attainment, with long-term earnings impacts persisting into their mid-20s [4]. Such societal fragility fosters a climate of uncertainty, a known catalyst for safe-haven demand.

Safe-Haven Assets in Times of Uncertainty

Gold and government bonds are traditionally viewed as safe havens during crises. Gold, in particular, thrives in environments of extreme market stress, becoming increasingly sensitive to large negative shocks in equities [5]. U.S. Treasury bonds, while historically reliable, have shown divergent behavior in recent crises. During the 2020 pandemic, for instance, long-term Treasuries fell in price alongside equities, breaking from their typical inverse relationship [6]. This volatility underscores the evolving dynamics of safe-haven assets in an era of multifaceted risks.

While mass shootings are not geopolitical events in the traditional sense, their cumulative effect on societal resilience mirrors the psychological toll of prolonged crises. The 2025 Marketing Science study notes that communities with higher gun death rates exhibit muted economic impacts, suggesting desensitization [2]. However, this adaptation does not eliminate uncertainty; rather, it shifts the focus to systemic instability, which may drive investors to diversify into assets like gold.

Indirect Pathways to Safe-Haven Demand

Though no direct studies link mass shootings to gold or bond demand, indirect evidence exists. For example, the economic burden of gun violence—$557 billion annually in medical, criminal justice, and productivity costs [7]—contributes to macroeconomic instability, a known driver of safe-haven flows. Additionally, the 2025 surge in global gold ETF inflows ($43.6 billion) coincided with heightened U.S. policy uncertainty, including debates over gun control and federal spending [8]. While mass shootings alone cannot account for this trend, they likely contribute to a broader narrative of risk aversion.

The political dimension also plays a role. Pro-gun political action committees have increased contributions to candidates in affected districts, reflecting strategic responses to policy debates [9]. This polarization may deepen public distrust in institutions, further incentivizing investors to seek refuge in assets perceived as independent of political cycles.

Conclusion

The interplay between mass shootings, societal resilience, and safe-haven demand is complex and multifaceted. While direct empirical links remain elusive, the cumulative effects of economic disruption, psychological trauma, and political polarization create a fertile ground for shifts in investor behavior. As the U.S. grapples with an unrelenting cycle of violence, the financial markets may increasingly reflect the shadow of these crises—through both immediate volatility and long-term reallocations toward stability. Future research should explore granular data on gold and bond flows around specific incidents, leveraging the frameworks established in studies of other crises.

Source:
[1] Traders, guns, and money: The effects of mass shootings on stock prices of firearm manufacturers in the U.S. [https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5436715/]
[2] New Study Reveals Economic Ripple Effects of Mass Shootings on Local Businesses [https://www.informs.org/News-Room/INFORMS-Releases/News-Releases/New-Study-Reveals-Economic-Ripple-Effects-of-Mass-Shootings-on-Local-Businesses]
[3] How Do Mass Shootings Affect Community Wellbeing? [https://www.iza.org/publications/dp/13879/how-do-mass-shootings-affect-community-wellbeing]
[4] Surviving a school shooting: Impacts on the mental health ... [https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/health/surviving-school-shooting-impacts-mental-health-education-and-earnings-american]
[5] Safe haven assets and investor behaviour under uncertainty [https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/publication/safe-haven-assets-and-investor-behaviour-under-uncertainty]
[6] Are US Treasury Bonds Still a Safe Haven? [https://www.nber.org/reporter/2020number3/are-us-treasury-bonds-still-safe-haven]
[7] The Economic Cost of Gun Violence [https://everytownresearch.org/report/the-economic-cost-of-gun-violence]
[8] Safe Haven Demand Fuels Global Gold ETF Inflows [https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/safe-haven-demand-fuels-global-gold-etf-inflows]
[9] School Shootings and the Strategic Contributions of Pro ... [https://www.nber.org/papers/w33900]