Post-Crisis Resilience: Investing in Security and Recovery Amid Rising Violence

The United States has seen a dramatic rise in random acts of violence and terrorism since 2020, with profound economic consequences for local retail and healthcare sectors. A 2025 study by the University of Texas at Dallas estimates that mass shootings alone cost U.S. retailers $27 billion annually, driven by reduced foot traffic, store closures, and consumer fear. Nonessential retailers—such as apparel and specialty stores—face disproportionate losses, while healthcare systems grapple with $18.27 billion in annual costs from treating violent injuries, security upgrades, and staff trauma. These figures underscore a critical shift in economic priorities: resilience infrastructure is no longer optional—it is essential.

The Cost of Chaos

Retailers within a 1.25-mile radius of mass shootings suffer an average 19% revenue drop, with long-term closures compounding the damage. In healthcare, the American Hospital Association (AHA) reports that $14.65 billion of the 2023 total cost was tied to post-event medical treatment and infrastructure repairs. Pre-event costs, including training for de-escalation, active shooter drills, and security staffing, add another $3.62 billion, revealing a systemic investment in preparedness.

The pandemic exacerbated these trends. Intimate partner violence, workplace aggression, and firearm-related incidents surged, straining both sectors. For example, Portland, Oregon, faced over $500,000 in property damage during a 2021 anti-government protest, while a 2022 shooting left four hospitalized. These events highlight a growing need for community recovery frameworks and public safety technologies.

The Resilience Playbook

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has responded aggressively, allocating $1.12 billion annually through the Homeland Security Grant Program (HSGP) to bolster cybersecurity, emergency response, and infrastructure resilience. Key initiatives include:
- Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA): A $1 billion, four-year program to defend state and local governments against cyber threats.
- Nonprofit Security Grant Program (NSGP): Expanded to $250 million in 2022, targeting high-risk institutions like faith-based organizations and historically Black colleges.
- Forced Labor Prevention Strategy: A $60 million Human Smuggling Task Force to combat trafficking and supply chain vulnerabilities.

These programs have created a surge in demand for threat intelligence platforms, physical security systems, and emergency logistics solutions. Companies like IBM and Booz Allen Hamilton have secured multi-million-dollar contracts under CISA's Threat Intelligence Enterprise Services (TIES) initiative, while Padrón Partners and ECS Federal are enhancing infrastructure resilience for critical sectors.

Strategic Investment Opportunities

1. Cybersecurity and Threat Intelligence:
2. IBM (IBM): Recently awarded a $2.2 million contract for CISA's TIES platform, IBM is central to federal threat intelligence efforts. Its hybrid cloud and AI-driven security tools are in high demand as agencies seek to prevent ransomware and data breaches.

3. CrowdStrike (CRWD): A leader in endpoint detection and response (EDR), CrowdStrike benefits from increased federal spending on real-time threat monitoring.

4. Emergency Response and Recovery:

5. Tyco (TYC): A major player in fire safety and security systems, Tyco's products are critical for hospitals and retail chains upgrading infrastructure post-violence.

6. Hill International (HIL): Specializing in risk management and construction oversight, Hill supports post-disaster rebuilding efforts, including hospital infrastructure repairs.

7. Community Resilience and Social Infrastructure:

8. UnitedHealth Group (UNH): As healthcare systems bear the brunt of violence-related costs, UnitedHealth's behavioral health services and trauma-informed care programs are expanding.
9. Community Brands (CMBD): Provides crisis communication platforms for local governments, aligning with DHS's emphasis on public trust and transparency.

The Road Ahead

The economic toll of violence is undeniable, but so is the opportunity it creates for sectors enabling resilience. Investors should prioritize companies with long-term government contracts, scalable solutions, and cross-sector applications. For example, firms like Booz Allen Hamilton (awarded $1.3 million for CISA's TIES program) and Leidos (LDOS)—a key player in IT operations for federal agencies—offer exposure to both cybersecurity and emergency response markets.

However, caution is warranted. While short-term demand is robust, long-term success hinges on policy continuity and private-sector innovation. Investors must also consider geographic diversification, as urban areas like Portland and New York remain hotspots for violence-related disruptions.

Conclusion

The post-crisis landscape is reshaping economic priorities. As retailers and healthcare providers adapt to a new normal, the companies enabling their survival—through advanced security, rapid response, and community recovery—stand to thrive. For investors, this is not merely a defensive play; it is an opportunity to back the infrastructure of tomorrow. The question is not if these investments will pay off, but how quickly the market will recognize their inevitability.