Positioning for 2026 Gains: A Strategic Deep Dive into Stocks with Surging Unusual Options Activity

As 2026 approaches, investors are increasingly turning to options-driven momentum strategies to capitalize on market shifts. Unusual options activity-defined by surging call volume, institutional participation, and divergences in implied volatility-has emerged as a critical signal for identifying high-conviction opportunities. This analysis examines three stocks where such activity aligns with fundamental and technical catalysts: Nvidia (NVDA), Nike (NKE), and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM).

Nvidia (NVDA): AI-Driven Growth and Institutional Confidence

Nvidia remains the poster child for AI-led demand, with its December 2025 and 2026 $185 call options dominating trading volume. On December 2, 2025, the Dec-05-25 $185 call saw over 40,549 contracts traded-12.6% of total NVDA options volume that day, with 38% of activity attributed to institutional accounts according to analysis. By December 23, the Dec-26-25 $185 call accounted for 19.2% of options volume, despite a 7.2% drop in implied volatility to 21.5, signaling a shift toward profit-taking.

Institutional confidence is further underscored by the fact that institutions own over 65% of NVDA shares and have consistently accumulated stock in 2025 according to reports. Analysts have upgraded price targets, with a consensus suggesting a 40% upside to $350 by 2026 according to analysis. This optimism is rooted in NVIDIA's dominance in AI infrastructure, where demand for its GPUs shows no signs of slowing.

Nike (NKE): A Turning-Point Story with Bullish Momentum

Nike's recent options activity reflects a market pivot toward optimism. On a single day in December 2025, NKE saw 272,000 call contracts traded-double its typical volume-while the put/call ratio plummeted to 0.51 according to market data. Implied volatility (IV30) rose to 29.5, indicating expectations of continued price movement. This surge coincided with CEO Elliott Hill's $1 million insider purchase, which drove a 3.9% intraday rally.

Analysts have responded with cautious optimism, assigning a "Moderate Buy" consensus rating and an average price target of $75.84 according to analysis. The stock's fundamentals are improving, with management focusing on inventory discipline and digital transformation. For momentum investors, the alignment of bullish options flow and insider buying creates a compelling case for NKE as a 2026 turnaround candidate.

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM): Recession Resistance and Undervaluation

CM's December 2025 options activity was nothing short of explosive. Traders purchased 155,840 call options in a single day-a 26,269% surge compared to its typical 591-contract volume according to market reports. This surge coincided with CM's strong quarterly results: Earnings per share (EPS) of $1.57 and revenue of $5.41 billion exceeded estimates, with the stock trading near its 12-month high of $94.16 according to financial data.

Analysts highlight CM's recession-resistant profile, with a "Moderate Buy" consensus rating and an average price target of $107.50 according to analysis. Despite a "Hold" recommendation from ARC INDEPENDENT RESEARCH according to analyst reports, other analysts, including Doug Young of Desjardins, upgraded CM to "Buy" with a $135 target, citing its 15%+ cash return on equity target for FY26. The stock's 37.3% year-to-date gain and strong institutional ownership further reinforce its undervaluation thesis.

Conclusion: Positioning for 2026 Gains

Options-driven momentum investing offers a roadmap for identifying stocks poised for 2026 gains. Nvidia embodies AI-led demand and institutional conviction, Nike represents a turning-point story with improving fundamentals, and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce offers recession resistance and undervaluation. While each stock carries unique risks, the confluence of unusual options activity, strong earnings, and analyst upgrades provides a compelling case for strategic entry. As volatility normalizes and macroeconomic clarity emerges, these names could anchor a resilient 2026 portfolio.