Port of Los Angeles Sees 8% Import Surge Amid Tariff Uncertainty

The Port of Los Angeles experienced an 8% surge in year-over-year imports in June, marking a significant rebound after reporting slumping shipping volumes in May. This sudden increase, however, is not seen as a cause for celebration by Executive Director Gene Seroka, who attributes the spike to companies stockpiling goods to avoid upcoming tariff deadlines.

For several months, Seroka had warned of reduced shipment arrivals from China and decreased hours for dock workers and truckers due to President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff threats. Despite the port's busiest-ever June, with 892,000 container units, Seroka remains cautious. He views the improvement as a response to businesses preparing for the next round of tariff uncertainty.

“While record-setting volume is welcome news, it also highlights the tariff whipsaw effect that we’ve mentioned before,” Seroka stated in a press briefing. The surge in shipping volumes is likely a result of Trump’s 90-day tariff pause in April and the subsequent deescalation of the trade war with China, where tariffs on the country’s exports fell to 30%.

Seroka anticipates that the wave of shipments will ease again in August, as the late summer marks the end of a flurry of shipment orders ahead of the holiday shopping season and the latest trade deadline. Trump has threatened to impose flat 25% tariffs on Japan and South Korea unless a deal is reached by August 1.

“We’re going to probably get one last push on imports coming to the United States, and [businesses are] doing as much as they can to sneak in under that new Aug. 1 deadline,” Seroka said. “While it’s good news for our waterfront workers, truck drivers, warehouses, and our marine terminals…shifting timelines simply means shifting volume and more uncertainty here at the Port of LA.”

This spike in shipping volume mirrors a similar trend seen in March, when companies pulled forward shipments to avoid higher costs before Trump’s first round of tariffs went into effect. The uncertain trade environment has led businesses to stockpile inventory to control costs, either passing them on to consumers or to suppliers.

However, the risk of stock-ups remains high, as companies may need to dip into cash reserves or take out loans to pull forward shipments, potentially leading to excess inventory and price slashes. Some Fortune 500 companies are leveraging their size and supplier relationships to switch manufacturers or move operations to cheaper locations like Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, and Bangladesh.

Shipping data is expected to continue fluctuating as businesses adapt to the ongoing trade turmoil. The lack of clarity on long-term tariff levels has created an environment of uncertainty, making it difficult for businesses to plan and for the port to maintain steady shipping norms. Seroka’s warnings underscore the need for a stable trade policy to ensure consistent shipping volumes and economic stability.