Pork and Poultry Surge to Fill the Beef Gap as U.S. Protein Demand Reshapes Supply Chains

The U.S. protein market is being driven by a powerful, sustained consumer shift. More Americans are actively seeking protein, with 61% increasing their intake in 2024-a significant jump from 48% in 2019. This isn't a passing trend; it's a fundamental repositioning of protein as a dietary staple, with 74% of consumers saying, "eating meat is an important part of my diet." This demand is the primary engine behind production increases, but its composition is clearly changing.

The shift is evident in projected availability. Domestic per capita supply of red meat and poultry is forecast to rise to 227 pounds in 2026, up from 226 pounds in 2025. This growth is not uniform. It is being driven almost entirely by poultry and pork. Chicken availability per person is projected to hold steady at 102.8 pounds in 2026, while pork availability is expected to climb to 50.9 pounds. In stark contrast, beef availability is projected to decline further, to 56.9 pounds per person in 2026, continuing a multi-year downward trend.

This demand pattern directly shapes the production outlook. The USDA forecasts that total red meat and poultry production will increase by about 1% in 2026. The math is clear: gains in pork and poultry output are more than offsetting another decline in beef. The demand for chicken and pork is strong enough to absorb higher prices and drive supply expansion, while beef faces a plateau. This transition points to a market where supply must align with evolving preferences, not just grow in volume.

Production and Supply: Balancing Livestock Output

The physical production of U.S. protein is on a steady climb, but the path is shaped by distinct animal-specific dynamics. The USDA's latest forecast shows a 1% increase in total red meat and poultry production for 2026, a figure driven by gains in pork and poultry that more than offset a modest beef uptick.

Beef production is projected at 25.735 billion pounds, a slight 10 million pound increase from the December forecast. This revision is due to heavier dressed weights, a sign that cattle are being fed to heavier market weights. However, this production gain is being partially offset by a complex trade picture, with lower exports against higher imports. The average steer price is also up, indicating strong on-farm returns but also potential pressure on consumer demand if prices pass through.

Pork output is the clear growth engine, with production pegged at 28.215 billion pounds. This represents a significant 740 million pound increase from the previous forecast, supported by a larger inventory of hogs. The forecast also shows a shift in trade flows, with a cut in imports against increases for exports and consumption. This suggests domestic supply is meeting both domestic demand and international appetite, a positive sign for processors.

Broiler (chicken) production is projected at 48.6 billion pounds, up 50 million pounds on hatchery numbers. The average price is steady, and the forecast notes a slight rise in consumption. This aligns with the strong demand trends seen earlier. Turkey production is also up, estimated at 4.975 billion pounds, a 20 million pound increase driven by production data.

The bottom line is a supply chain adapting to demand. While beef faces headwinds from trade and a plateauing per capita supply, pork and poultry are scaling output to meet rising consumption. The key constraint for all three remains the feed grain nexus, which will determine how sustainably this production growth can continue.

The Feed Grain Foundation: Corn and Soybean Dynamics

The foundation of the U.S. protein supply chain rests on two critical inputs: corn and soybean meal. Their availability and cost directly determine the profitability of producing beef, pork, and poultry. For the upcoming 2025/26 marketing year, the outlook for these feed grains is one of ample supply, which should provide a buffer against input cost inflation.

Corn is the undisputed king of U.S. feed grains, accounting for more than 95 percent of total feed grain production and use. The 2025/26 outlook is for a record harvest, with production projected at 16.7 billion bushels. This surge is driven by both expanded planted area and higher yields. The resulting supply glut is significant: new crop supplies are elevated to over 18.0 billion bushels, and ending stocks are raised by 457 million bushels. This sharp increase in available corn puts clear downward pressure on prices, with the season average farm price forecast to be 30 cents lower this month to $3.90 per bushel. For livestock producers, this is a favorable development, as it lowers the primary energy cost in animal diets.

The story for protein in feed is dominated by soybean meal. This byproduct of soybean crushing is the "gold standard" protein source for animal feed, prized for its amino acid profile and digestibility. Its importance is underscored by the scale of consumption: in 2022, 36.3 million short tons of soybean meal were consumed by animal agriculture, with poultry and swine accounting for the vast majority. While the latest evidence does not detail 2025/26 soybean meal supply forecasts, the context is clear. The health of the soybean market is intrinsically linked to the corn market, as both are major U.S. crops. The record corn harvest may influence planting decisions, but the fundamental demand for soybean meal from the livestock sector remains robust and structural.

The bottom line for the protein supply chain is that feed costs are under pressure. The projected record corn crop and higher stocks should help contain the primary energy cost for feed rations. This provides a supportive backdrop for the production increases forecast for pork and poultry. However, the system remains vulnerable to shifts in the soybean market and any disruptions to the corn harvest. For now, the feed grain foundation appears stable, but its strength is a key variable in the overall profitability equation for protein producers.

Trade and Market Implications

The domestic production gains and supportive feed cost environment are translating into a robust export story, but the U.S. operates in a fiercely competitive global market. The sector's scale is evident: the U.S. exports about $30 billion in livestock and animal products annually. A significant portion of that volume is made up of pork, poultry, and beef, with roughly 25% of U.S. pork, 15% of U.S. poultry, and 13% of U.S. beef finding their way to international buyers. This export tailwind is a key factor in supporting domestic prices and absorbing the increased output, particularly for pork and poultry.

Yet, the U.S. is not the sole supplier in this global arena. The country remains the world's largest producer and exporter of corn, but its share of the global trade is challenged. Competition from Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine comprises over 50% of the global corn trade. This dynamic means U.S. exporters must compete on price and reliability, and any shift in global supply-such as a bumper crop elsewhere-can quickly impact U.S. export volumes and pricing power. For the protein sector, this competition in the feed grain market is a constant undercurrent, as lower global corn prices could eventually pressure U.S. feed costs and, by extension, protein production economics.

On the price front, the market is signaling strength. Despite the ample corn supply, the forecast for 2026 points to higher prices for key livestock. The USDA projects fed steer prices to average $240 per hundredweight, a 7% increase from 2025. This is driven by tight cattle supplies and sustained demand. The price signal is clear: the market is rewarding producers for the current supply constraints and the ongoing demand for protein, even as the composition of that demand shifts toward pork and poultry.

The bottom line is a sector navigating a dual reality. Domestically, production is growing to meet evolving consumer preferences, supported by lower feed costs. Externally, export volumes are substantial but face intense global competition. The price signals, particularly for beef, indicate that supply tightness is a more immediate constraint than feed costs. For investors and producers, the implication is that profitability will increasingly hinge on managing these trade dynamics and aligning production with the specific protein segments-pork and poultry-that are driving both domestic demand and export growth.