Pope Francis’s Passing: A Crossroads for Argentina’s Investment Landscape

The death of Pope Francis on April 21, 2025, marks the end of an era for the Catholic Church and Argentina, his homeland. The Argentine presidency’s statement of “deep regret” underscores the profound emotional and political weight of his legacy. For investors, this moment presents both risks and opportunities tied to Argentina’s domestic stability, global diplomatic ties, and the Vatican’s evolving priorities. Here’s how the fallout from his passing could reshape investment strategies.

Political Stability and Fiscal Policy: A Delicate Balance

President Javier Milei’s conciliatory tone in acknowledging Francis’s advocacy for fiscal responsibility at the Vatican hints at a potential alignment with the late pope’s economic values. This could bolster investor confidence in Milei’s austerity-driven policies, which have already sparked debates over Argentina’s ability to stabilize its economy.

While the Merval Index has shown volatility—partly due to inflation and currency fluctuations—any perceived political stability post-Francis could attract short-term capital inflows. However, investors should remain cautious. Milei’s ideological differences with Francis on social issues, such as poverty alleviation, may lead to public discontent if austerity measures disproportionately affect lower-income groups.

Tourism and Pilgrimages: A Boon for Argentina’s Economy?

Francis’s death is likely to spark a surge in religious tourism to both Argentina and the Vatican. His humble legacy—living in a Vatican guesthouse and advocating for the poor—has made him a global icon.

Argentina’s tourism sector, which contributed roughly 8% to GDP in 2023, could see a temporary boost as pilgrims flock to his birthplace in Buenos Aires and his final resting place in Rome. Sectors like hospitality, retail, and transportation may benefit, but infrastructure challenges and currency instability could limit the long-term impact.

The Vatican’s Conclave: Geopolitical Shifts Ahead

The conclave to elect Francis’s successor, expected within weeks, could shift the Vatican’s diplomatic and economic priorities. Historically, the Vatican has leveraged its soft power to influence global issues—from climate change to interfaith relations. A new pope’s stance on fiscal prudence or social justice could indirectly affect Argentina’s diplomatic leverage.

The Vatican’s modest economy, with a GDP of ~€550 million in 2022, relies heavily on tourism and its symbolic role in global affairs. A pope aligned with fiscal conservatism might strengthen ties with Argentina’s current government, while a progressive leader could amplify calls for corporate social responsibility, reshaping investment ethics.

Risks and Considerations

• Political Uncertainty: Argentina’s polarized political landscape may lead to protests or policy reversals, especially if the new pope’s agenda clashes with Milei’s priorities.
• Currency Volatility: Argentina’s peso has lost over 60% of its value against the dollar since 2020, complicating foreign investments.
• Global Catholic Sentiment: The election of a non-European pope could further globalize the Church, potentially opening markets in Africa or Asia at Argentina’s expense.

Conclusion: A Moment of Reflection for Investors

Pope Francis’s death is a pivotal moment for Argentina. While his legacy offers a narrative of fiscal discipline and social justice that could align with Milei’s policies, investors must weigh short-term opportunities against long-standing structural risks. Tourism may see a temporary lift, but Argentina’s economy remains vulnerable to inflation and political volatility. The conclave’s outcome will determine whether the Vatican’s new direction strengthens or complicates Argentina’s global standing.

For now, the best strategy may be to monitor and diplomatic developments closely. As the world mourns a pope, investors must navigate the fine line between symbolic resonance and tangible economic returns.

In the end, Francis’s death underscores a broader truth: in Argentina, as in the Vatican, change is inevitable—but stability remains fragile.