Pope Election Betting Surges 152% on Polymarket After Hoax

Polymarket’s prediction market for the next Pope experienced a significant surge, crossing $6.4 million in total bets after a viral hoax falsely claimed the Catholic Church intended to excommunicate gamblers. The fake announcement, which mimicked an official Church statement, was circulated on X by an account with over 240,000 followers. The post condemned platforms like Polymarket for turning the sacred papal election into a “speculative exercise” and urged the faithful to treat the Conclave as a spiritual, not financial, matter.

The hoax was quickly debunked due to its lack of the Church’s formal tone and formatting, as well as its unusual naming of Polymarket directly. Despite the rumor being fabricated, it inadvertently revealed rare internal data from Polymarket. A screenshot embedded in the hoax suggested that total wagers on the papal successor stood at $2.5 million as of April 21. That figure has since more than doubled.

Polymarket opened the “Next Pope” market in February, well before Pope Francis’ death, as speculation around succession grew. The sudden spike in betting volume highlights the intersection of global religion and decentralized speculation. As of today, the “Next Pope” market is one of the most active on Polymarket.

The Catholic Church has largely remained indifferent to the crypto sector, aside from isolated instances like a US archdiocese accepting Bitcoin donations. There’s no indication that Church leaders are paying attention to Polymarket, especially during a pivotal moment like the election of a new Pope. However, the surge in interest reveals how digital markets increasingly reflect—and amplify—the intensity of public discourse.

Crypto-native platforms are becoming arenas for real-time speculation on major political, cultural, and now religious developments. While the Catholic Church is unlikely to weigh in on Web3 anytime soon, the spike in interest in the “Next Pope” market on Polymarket underscores the growing influence of decentralized speculation in global events.