Pop Mart’s Labubu Movie Gamble Won’t Fix a Fading Trend—Stock Down 44% as Resale Prices Collapse

Pop Mart is betting its biggest brand on a movie deal that doesn't exist yet. The studio move is real-Sony just signed for screen rights to Labubu-but the project is in the most nascent stage imaginable, with no creative team attached and a film years away. Meanwhile, the stock is down 44% from August highs, and resale prices for the dolls have collapsed below retail. The core conflict is stark: the company is using a distant Hollywood dream to revive a fading trend, but the market is already pricing in the risk that the magic has worn off. The central question is whether this is a smart revival strategy or a sign of desperation.

The Breakdown: What's Really Happening

Let's cut through the hype and lay out the raw facts. This isn't a movie deal changing the game-it's a long-shot bet on a brand that's already lost its pop.

1. Sony's Move: A Deal Signed, But No Movie Yet Sony Pictures acquired screen rights last week for a Labubu feature film and potential franchise. That's the headline. The reality is far more basic: no talent or producers are attached, and it's too early to tell if it will be live-action or animated. This is a rights acquisition, not a production commitment. Sony is betting on the brand's staying power, not on a script.

2. Pop Mart's Financials: A Giant Line, A Weak Stock Labubu is the crown jewel of Pop Mart's The Monsters line. The numbers are staggering: it generated $430 million in 2024 and $670 million in the first half of 2025. Yet the stock tells a different story. Shares are down 44% from August highs. The market is pricing in the risk that this revenue engine is cooling, regardless of Hollywood's interest.

1. The Demand Signal: The Market is Speaking Some scalpers have paused buying, and holiday sales abroad were weaker than expected. This isn't just a slowdown-it's a shift in collector sentiment. Pop Mart is now pushing other IPs like Crybaby to fill the gap, a clear sign Labubu's dominance is being challenged.

2. The Movie Timeline: A Years-Long Gamble Feature film development is a marathon, not a sprint. From rights acquisition to a theatrical release, it's typically a years-long process. Sony's bet is that Labubu will remain relevant enough to draw audiences in three to five years. That's a huge ask for a trend-driven collectible toy. The movie is a distant hope, not a near-term catalyst.

The bottom line? Pop Mart is using a distant Hollywood dream to revive a fading trend. The financials show the trend is already fading. The market is waiting to see if the movie deal can reignite the magic-or if it's just a distraction.

Why This Matters: The Stakes Are High

The valuation gap tells the real story. Pop Mart trades at roughly four times larger than peer Sanrio Co. That premium is built entirely on Labubu's success. When the demand for that star character wavers, the entire valuation structure is at risk.

The numbers are a stark warning. Labubu is the lead IP in The Monsters line, which generated $430 million in 2024 and $670 million in the first half of 2025. That's the engine. Now, the market is signaling the engine is misfiring. Shares are down 44% from August highs, a rout that wiped out more than $25 billion in value. The recent 6.2% single-day drop on weak resale reports shows the panic is real and immediate.

Here's the high-wire act: the stock is still up more than double this year. That's the lingering momentum from the rally. But the 44% decline since August is the reality check. It means investors are pricing in the risk that Labubu's magic is fading, and they are willing to sell to lock in profits. The movie deal is a distant hope, not a near-term fix for this crisis of confidence.

The bottom line is brutal. Pop Mart's entire premium valuation is on the line. If the Labubu revival fails, the stock has nowhere to go but down. The high stakes are clear: a failed bet on a movie could crater a valuation built on a fading trend.