Pool Outlook - A Bearish Technical Picture with Mixed Analyst Views

Market Snapshot

Takeaway: Pool (POOL.O) faces a weak technical outlook with bearish signals dominating, while fundamentals show mixed signals and recent price trends have seen a small rise of 1.10%.

News Highlights

Recent news from May 2025 highlights broader market developments that may indirectly affect Pool:

• Brown-Forman’s U.S. Distribution Shift: The company announced new distribution agreements in 13 U.S. markets, effective from August 1. While not directly related to Pool, shifts in distribution patterns in consumer goods sectors can ripple into broader economic confidence and discretionary spending habits.
• U.S. Vaccination Policy Changes: The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services announced revised guidance on the approval and recommendation of COVID-19 vaccines. These changes may have macroeconomic effects, influencing public health spending and consumer behavior over time.
• Trump Fast-Tracks Utah Uranium Mine: President Trump expedited a uranium mine project in Utah, signaling a potential revival of the uranium industry. This could impact industrial and energy markets more broadly, possibly affecting raw material costs for manufacturing sectors.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts remain split on the outlook for Pool. The simple average rating is 3.50, while the performance-weighted average rating is 2.31, indicating a more cautious view when considering past performance. The ratings are not aligned with the recent price trend, which is up 1.10% despite the bearish technical signals.

Fundamental Highlights

• Return on Equity (ROE) YoY Growth: 16.46% (internal diagnostic score: 2.00). Strong growth, but not enough to outweigh other bearish factors.
• Current Liabilities / Total Liabilities: 34.05% (internal diagnostic score: 0.00). Suggests high leverage and a bearish signal from the model.
• Net Profit Margin: 8.68% (internal diagnostic score: 2.00). Solid, but not outperforming.
• ROA (Return on Assets): 5.29% (internal diagnostic score: 2.00). Indicates moderate profitability.
• Cash-UP Ratio: 24.13% (internal diagnostic score: 0.00). Suggests poor liquidity.

Money-Flow Trends

Big-money and retail investors are showing some interest in Pool, with overall inflow ratio at 51.23%, indicating a positive trend. Large and extra-large investors are particularly active, with inflow ratios of 51.48% and 51.21% respectively. Retail investors (small investors) are also participating, though slightly less so than institutional players.

Key Technical Signals

Pool’s technical indicators are overwhelmingly bearish, with a total of 5 bearish signals and 0 bullish indicators in the last 5 days. Our internal technical model assigns an overall diagnostic score of 1.74 (out of 10), suggesting a very weak technical outlook and advising to avoid the stock.

Recent Indicators (by date)

• 2025-09-03: WR Oversold (internal score: 3.96) – Slight positive signal, but not strong enough to counter the bearish trend.
• 2025-09-02: WR Oversold (internal score: 3.96)
• 2025-08-28: Bearish Engulfing (internal score: 1.00) and Dividend Payable Date (internal score: 1.00) – Both are strong bearish signals.
• 2025-09-05: WR Overbought (internal score: 1.00) and MACD Golden Cross (internal score: 1.75) – Suggest overvaluation and weak momentum.
• 2025-09-08: WR Overbought (internal score: 1.00) – Indicates a potential pullback.

Key Insights

Technical indicators suggest a weak market environment for Pool, with bearish signals clearly dominating. The model warns of a high risk of decline and advises investors to remain cautious.

Conclusion

Actionable Takeaway: Consider avoiding Pool for now due to the weak technical outlook and conflicting signals from analysts. Investors should monitor for a potential pullback or stronger fundamental catalysts before considering entry. Keep an eye on upcoming earnings and broader market conditions that could shift sentiment.