Pony AI's Stock Plummets 11%: What's Behind the Sudden Selloff?

Summary
• Pony AI (PONY) reports 76% YOY revenue surge to $21.5M in Q2 2025
• Gen-7 robotaxi production accelerates to 200+ units since June
• Stock trades at $13.2 (down 11.29%) with intraday range of $13.12–$15.07

Today’s sharp selloff in Pony AI’s shares defies its strong Q2 financials and production milestones. While the company claims to be 'on track' for 1,000 Gen-7 robotaxis by year-end, investors are grappling with conflicting signals: surging revenue versus widening operating losses, and optimism over commercialization versus skepticism about unit economics. The stock’s 14:29 ET price of $13.2 sits near its 52-week low of $4.11, raising urgent questions about sustainability.

Revenue Surge vs. Operating Loss Widens: A Tale of Two Metrics
Pony AI’s Q2 results revealed a paradox: total revenue jumped 76% to $21.5M, driven by 300% growth in robotaxi fare-charging revenues and a 901.8% surge in licensing income. However, operating expenses ballooned 75% to $64.7M, with R&D costs up 69% to $49M. The widening net loss of $53.3M (vs. $37M in Q2 2024) triggered investor caution. While CEO James Peng highlighted progress on remote assistant-to-vehicle ratios and insurance costs, the market appears to be pricing in skepticism about the path to positive unit economics. The stock’s intraday collapse suggests short-term traders are capitalizing on volatility ahead of the August 15 options expiration.

Information Technology Services Sector Mixed as Aurora Innovation (AUR) Trails
Options Playbook: Capitalizing on Volatility and Gamma Exposure
• MACD: 0.316 (bullish divergence), Signal Line: 0.196, Histogram: 0.120 (positive momentum)
• RSI: 55.58 (neutral zone), Bollinger Bands: $12.34–$15.54 (current price near lower band)
• 30D MA: $13.55 (price below), 100D MA: $12.45 (price above)

Top Options Contracts:
• PONY20250815P13 (Put):
- Strike: $13, Expiry: 8/15
- IV: 83.00% (high volatility), Delta: -0.343 (moderate sensitivity), Theta: -0.0014 (low time decay), Gamma: 0.316 (high sensitivity to price swings), Turnover: $32,567
- Why: High gamma and IV make this put ideal for a short-term bearish play if the stock breaks below $13.12 support.
• PONY20250815C13 (Call):
- Strike: $13, Expiry: 8/15
- IV: 84.22% (high volatility), Delta: 0.655 (high sensitivity), Theta: -0.141 (moderate time decay), Gamma: 0.312 (high sensitivity to price swings), Turnover: $21,375
- Why: Strong delta and gamma position this call to capitalize on a potential rebound above $13.50 resistance.

Payoff Analysis:
• Put Option (P13): At 5% downside (ST = $12.44), payoff = max(0, $13 - $12.44) = $0.56/share. With leverage of 47.88%, this could yield ~4.23% return on investment.
• Call Option (C13): At 5% upside (ST = $13.86), payoff = max(0, $13.86 - $13) = $0.86/share. With leverage of 19.15%, this could yield ~5.44% return.

Action: Aggressive bulls may consider PONY20250815C13 into a bounce above $13.50. Cautious bears should target PONY20250815P13 if the stock breaks below $13.12, with a stop-loss at $12.34 (lower Bollinger Band).

Backtest Pony AI Stock Performance
The backtest of PONY's performance after an intraday plunge of -11% shows favorable results. The 3-Day win rate is 46.51%, the 10-Day win rate is 47.67%, and the 30-Day win rate is 72.09%. Additionally, the maximum return during the backtest period was 31.13%, which occurred on day 49.

Critical Crossroads: Watch $13.12 Support and 8/15 Options Expiry
Pony AI’s stock faces a pivotal test at $13.12 (intraday low) and $12.34 (lower Bollinger Band). A breakdown below these levels could trigger a cascade of stop-loss orders and accelerate the selloff toward the 52-week low. Conversely, a rebound above $13.50 (30D MA) may attract technical buyers. Investors should monitor the 8/15 options expiry for liquidity-driven volatility. Meanwhile, sector peer Aurora Innovation (AUR) fell 2.48% today, underscoring broader skepticism in the autonomous vehicle space. Act now: Position for a directional move with the P13 put or C13 call, or hedge with a short strangle if range-bound trading resumes.