Pony AI Soars 5.95% Intraday—Is This the Dawn of a New Autonomous Mobility Era?

Summary
• Pony AI's stock surges 5.95% to $13.646, trading near its intraday high of $14.23
• Company announces 2 million km of on-road testing for its L4 autonomous driving domain controller
• Options volume spikes, with PONY20250725C13.5 seeing 1,162 contracts traded

Pony AI Inc. (PONY) has ignited investor enthusiasm with a sharp intraday rally, driven by a landmark milestone in its L4 autonomous driving technology. The stock’s 5.95% surge reflects market confidence in the company’s cost-efficient domain controller and its potential to scale driverless fleets. With mass production underway and a planned 1,000-vehicle fleet, the stock’s volatility and options activity suggest a pivotal inflection point for the autonomous mobility sector.

2M km On-Road Testing Validates L4 Breakthrough
Pony AI’s 5.95% intraday surge is directly tied to its announcement of surpassing 2 million kilometers of on-road testing for its L4 automotive-grade domain controller. The technology, now deployed in the seventh-generation Robotaxi fleet, combines 1,016 TOPS computing power with a 50–80% reduction in size, weight, and cost compared to previous systems. The 80% cost-cutting and streamlined hardware-software integration—enabling mass production—have positioned Pony AI as a scalable player in L4 autonomy. Analysts highlight the system’s redundancy features and fail-operational safety architecture as critical differentiators, fueling optimism about its commercial viability and long-term margins.

EV Sector Mixed Amid Regulatory Uncertainty
Options and Technicals Signal Short-Term Bullish Momentum
• MACD: -0.1878 (signal line: -0.2742, histogram: 0.0864) — bearish divergence but histogram suggests narrowing sell-off
• RSI: 45.12 — oversold territory, hinting at potential rebound
• Bollinger Bands: Upper $14.20, Middle $12.95 — current price near upper band, suggesting overbought
• 30D MA: $12.88 (slightly above current price), 100D MA: $12.50 — bullish crossover potential

Pony AI’s technicals and options activity align with aggressive short-term bullish momentum. The stock is trading near its 52-week high of $23.88 but remains 54% below that level, creating a potential mean-reversion scenario. Key support at $12.95 (middle Bollinger Band) and resistance at $14.20 (upper band) define a tight trading range. For leveraged exposure, consider bold and bold, which offer high leverage (20.27% and 27.57%) and moderate delta (0.6068 and 0.4662), ideal for a 5% upside scenario:

PONY20250725C13.5:
• Code: PONY20250725C13.5
• Type: Call
• Strike: $13.50
• Expiry: 2025-07-25
• IV: 91.56% (high volatility)
• Delta: 0.6068 (moderate price sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.1477 (rapid time decay)
• Gamma: 0.2910 (high sensitivity to price movement)
• Turnover: $101,099
• Payoff at 5% up: $0.82/share (strike $13.50 vs. target $14.33)
• Why it stands out: High leverage and gamma make it ideal for a short-term breakout above $14.20.

PONY20250725C14:
• Code: PONY20250725C14
• Type: Call
• Strike: $14.00
• Expiry: 2025-07-25
• IV: 103.21% (elevated volatility)
• Delta: 0.4662 (balanced risk/reward)
• Theta: -0.1389 (aggressive time decay)
• Gamma: 0.2669 (strong price responsiveness)
• Turnover: $31,776
• Payoff at 5% up: $0.33/share (strike $14.00 vs. target $14.33)
• Why it stands out: Slightly out-of-the-money but offers a 227.78% price change ratio, aligning with the stock’s potential to test resistance.

Hook: If $14.20 breaks, bold offers a 218.52% price change potential, while bold targets a 227.78% move. Bulls should prioritize the 13.5 call for a 5% upside scenario.

Backtest Pony AI Stock Performance
The 6% intraday surge in PONY has historically led to positive short-to-medium-term gains. The backtest data shows that following such a surge:1. Short-Term Gains: The 3-day win rate is 47.69%, with an average return of 1.08% over 3 days. This indicates that nearly half of the time, the stock continues to rise in the immediate aftermath of the surge.2. Medium-Term Gains: The 10-day win rate is 52.31%, with an average return of 4.34% over 10 days. This suggests that a larger proportion of the time, the stock maintains its upward momentum compared to the short term.3. Long-Term Gains: The 30-day win rate is 56.92%, with an average return of 0.86% over 30 days. This indicates that even in the longer term, the stock tends to remain positive, albeit at a lower average return compared to the shorter terms.4. Maximum Return: The maximum return observed following the surge is 11.82%, which occurred on day 59 after the surge. This highlights that while the stock tends to rise, the magnitude of the gain can vary significantly.In conclusion, a 6% intraday surge in PONY is typically followed by a period of continued upward movement, although the exact duration and magnitude of the return can vary. Investors may consider these findings when assessing the potential for further gains in PONY following such a significant intraday move.

Breakout or Bubble? Watch $14.20 and IV Expansion
Pony AI’s 5.95% rally hinges on its ability to maintain momentum above $14.20 (Bollinger upper band) and sustain elevated implied volatility. The stock’s technicals suggest a short-term bullish bias, but the sector’s mixed performance—led by Tesla’s -0.35% decline—highlights broader macro risks. Investors should monitor the 14.20 resistance level and the 200D MA (currently unavailable) for a longer-term trend confirmation. For now, the PONY20250725C13.5 and PONY20250725C14 options offer leveraged exposure to a potential breakout. Action: Buy the 13.5 call if $14.20 holds; watch for a 5% move into the July 25 expiry.