Pony AI Soared 10.29%, What Hidden Catalysts Sparked This Surge?

Summary
• Pony AI's proprietary L4 automotive-grade domain controller surpassed 2 million kilometers of on-road testing
• Gen-7 Robotaxi models began road testing in Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen simultaneously
• Intraday price surged from $14.28 to $15.83, reflecting strong institutional interest with 8.8 million shares traded

Pony AI (PONY) has ignited a 10.29% rally in under 14 hours, fueled by a groundbreaking milestone in autonomous driving reliability and a multi-city road testing expansion. The stock’s surge from $14.28 to $15.83 highlights a shift in market sentiment as investors reprice the company’s technological edge in L4 autonomy. With Tesla’s sector leadership waning (0.33% intraday gain) and Pony AI’s domain controller achieving automotive-grade durability, the stock’s breakout suggests a recalibration of long-term value metrics for autonomous mobility innovators.

2M Kilometer Milestone Validates Commercial Viability
Pony AI’s announcement that its proprietary L4 domain controller has completed 2 million kilometers of real-world testing directly correlates with the stock’s 10.29% surge. This achievement confirms the system’s automotive-grade reliability, with a 60% cost reduction and 50% size/weight optimization versus prior generations. Simultaneously, the Gen-7 Robotaxi’s multi-city road testing in Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen signals rapid commercial deployment progress. Institutional investors are reevaluating Pony AI’s path to 1,000-vehicle fleet expansion, contrasting sharply with Tesla’s regulatory hurdles in California.

Autonomous Vehicles Sector Navigates Divergent Trajectories
While Pony AI accelerates L4 deployment, Tesla (TSLA) faces a 30-day stop-sale order threat in California over deceptive Autopilot marketing claims. This regulatory scrutiny has dampened sector-wide optimism, yet Pony AI’s hardware-first approach—using NVIDIA OrinX chips for 1,016 TOPS computing power—positions it as a hardware/software co-design leader. With Waymo and Baidu’s Apollo Go reporting 10+ million autonomous rides, Pony AI’s 2 million km benchmark now competes directly with industry leaders on reliability metrics.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on Short-Term Volatility
• MACD (-0.091) signals short-term bullish momentum with histogram divergence
• RSI (58.99) suggests balanced buying pressure, avoiding overbought territory
• Bollinger Bands (Upper: $14.17) show price has decisively broken above 30D SMA ($12.88)
• 52W range ($4.11–$23.88) indicates long-term upside potential remains intact

Key levels to watch: $15.43 (current price), $14.5 (psychological support), and $15.83 (intraday high). The 2025-08-01 options chain offers two high-conviction plays. First, PONY20250801C15 (strike $15, call) exhibits 91.04% price gain potential with 103.90% implied volatility. Its 0.5839 delta balances directional exposure while 0.1481 gamma ensures responsiveness to price acceleration. Second, PONY20250801C16 (strike $16, call) offers 88.89% upside with 111.93% IV, supported by $71,923 turnover and 0.4448 delta. A 5% upside scenario (target $16.20) would yield $1.20 payoff for PONY20250801C15 and $0.20 for PONY20250801C16. Aggressive bulls should prioritize the $15 call for leveraged exposure to a potential break above $15.83.

Backtest Pony AI Stock Performance
The backtest of PONY's performance after a 10% intraday increase shows mixed results. While the 3-Day win rate is 41.54%, the 10-Day win rate is slightly higher at 50.77%, and the 30-Day win rate is 53.85%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. However, the maximum return during the backtest period was only 10.02%, which suggests that while there is a good chance of positive returns, the potential for large gains is limited.

Breakout Confirmation Needed: 30-Second Action Plan
Pony AI’s 10.29% surge hinges on sustaining momentum above $15.43 to confirm a technical breakout. The 200-day average remains absent, but the 30D SMA ($12.88) provides long-term context for this rally. With Tesla’s sector leadership flat (0.33% gain) and Pony AI’s domain controller demonstrating 60% cost efficiency, the stock’s trajectory suggests a re-rating of autonomous mobility valuations. Immediate action: scale into the PONY20250801C15 call if $15.43 holds, and monitor $14.5 support for a potential short-term reversal. The 2025-08-01 options expiration creates urgency—position now for the next 7-day window.