Pony AI (PONY) Soars 11.7% Intraday: Can This Robotaxi Rally Sustain Momentum?

Summary
• PONY surges 11.7% to $15.935, breaking above 200-day MA of $14.45
• Goldman Sachs upgrades price target; Gen-7 Robotaxi mass production begins
• Turnover hits 6.05M shares, 2.13% of float
• Tesla (TSLA) declines 0.13%, highlighting sector divergence

Pony AI’s (PONY) 11.7% intraday surge has ignited market speculation, driven by Goldman Sachs’ price target upgrade and the launch of Gen-7 Robotaxi production. With turnover reaching 6.05 million shares and the stock trading near its 52-week high of $24.92, the move underscores renewed institutional and retail interest in autonomous driving. However, Tesla’s 0.13% decline signals divergent investor sentiment, raising questions about the sustainability of PONY’s rally.

Goldman Sachs and Robotaxi Production Fuel PONY’s Surge
PONY’s 11.7% intraday jump is directly tied to two catalysts: Goldman Sachs’ price target increase and the commencement of mass production for Gen-7 Robotaxis. The investment bank’s upgraded assessment validates Pony AI’s technological edge, while the production milestone demonstrates scalability. Institutional buying, including Allspring’s $293K investment, has amplified short-term demand. Despite the rally, the stock remains 56% below its 52-week high, suggesting potential for further gains if momentum holds.

Automotive Sector Volatility as Tesla Slumps 0.13%
While PONY surges, the broader automotive sector shows mixed signals. Tesla (TSLA) declines 0.13%, highlighting divergent investor sentiment. This divergence suggests PONY’s move is driven by specific catalysts rather than sector-wide optimism. However, the sector’s overall volatility—exemplified by TSLA’s struggles—indicates market skepticism about near-term profitability in autonomous tech, creating a high-risk, high-reward environment for PONY.

Options Playbook: PONY20251226C16.5 and PONY20260102C15.5 Lead the Charge
• 200-day MA: $14.45 (below current price)
• RSI: 55.43 (neutral)
• MACD: -0.2687 (bearish) vs. Signal Line: -0.4738 (bearish)
• Bollinger Bands: $11.75 (lower) to $15.86 (upper)

Technical indicators suggest PONY is in a short-term bearish trend but shows signs of consolidation. Key resistance lies at $16.50 (200D MA) and $17.00 (psychological level). The 55.43 RSI reading indicates neither overbought nor oversold conditions, supporting a continuation pattern. Given the stock’s 11.7% intraday move, options with moderate leverage and high gamma are optimal for capturing momentum.

Top Option 1: PONY20251226C16.5
• Code: PONY20251226C16.5
• Type: Call
• Strike: $16.50
• Expiry: 2025-12-26
• IV: 62.92% (high)
• Leverage: 45.40%
• Delta: 0.3639 (moderate)
• Theta: -0.0627 (high decay)
• Gamma: 0.2537 (high sensitivity)
• Turnover: 2,054

IV (Implied Volatility) at 62.92% reflects market anticipation of volatility. Leverage of 45.40% amplifies gains if PONY breaks $16.50. Delta of 0.3639 indicates moderate sensitivity to price changes, while high gamma (0.2537) ensures rapid delta adjustments as the stock rises. A 5% upside to $16.67 would yield a 10.6% payoff (max(0, 16.67-16.50)).

Top Option 2: PONY20260102C15.5
• Code: PONY20260102C15.5
• Type: Call
• Strike: $15.50
• Expiry: 2026-01-02
• IV: 67.54% (high)
• Leverage: 14.71%
• Delta: 0.6035 (high)
• Theta: -0.0513 (moderate decay)
• Gamma: 0.1772 (moderate sensitivity)
• Turnover: 5,329

IV of 67.54% suggests strong volatility expectations. Delta of 0.6035 offers high directional exposure, while moderate gamma (0.1772) ensures steady delta growth. A 5% upside to $16.67 would generate a 68.4% payoff (max(0, 16.67-15.50)).

Aggressive bulls should consider PONY20251226C16.5 for short-term momentum, while PONY20260102C15.5 suits those anticipating extended volatility into early January. Monitor the $16.50 level—breakout confirms bullish momentum, while a breakdown triggers reevaluation.

Backtest Pony Stock Performance
The backtest of PONY's performance following a 12% intraday increase from 2022 to the present shows favorable results. The 3-Day win rate is 46.02%, the 10-Day win rate is 53.98%, and the 30-Day win rate is 60.18%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The maximum return during the backtest was 10.04%, which occurred on day 59, suggesting that PONY can deliver significant gains even after the initial surge.

Pony AI’s Bullish Momentum: Act Now Before the Rally Fades
PONY’s 11.7% intraday surge is a high-stakes opportunity driven by Goldman Sachs’ optimism and Gen-7 Robotaxi production. While technical indicators suggest consolidation, the stock’s proximity to key resistance ($16.50) and sector divergence (TSLA -0.13%) highlight both potential and risk. Investors should prioritize PONY20251226C16.5 for short-term gains or PONY20260102C15.5 for extended volatility. With Tesla’s sector leadership faltering, PONY’s autonomous tech narrative remains a compelling, albeit volatile, play. Watch for a breakout above $16.50 or a breakdown below $14.45 (200D MA) to confirm direction. Sector leader Tesla (TSLA) declines 0.13%, underscoring the need for caution.