Polymesh/Turkish Lira (POLYXTRY) Market Overview

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• Price declined sharply from 3.62 to 3.32 over 24 hours amid high-volume bearish moves
• RSI signaled oversold conditions late in the window, but price failed to rebound
• Volatility expanded significantly during the large 3.45–3.35 swing late morning
• Bollinger Bands showed price near the lower band as of 16:00 ET
• No significant reversal patterns emerged despite the sharp drop

Polymesh/Turkish Lira (POLYXTRY) opened at 3.58 on 2025-10-29 at 12:00 ET and closed at 3.32 by 12:00 ET the next day, registering a 24-hour high of 3.62 and a low of 3.32. The total traded volume over the period was approximately 48,782.9 units, while turnover reached around 166,685.6 Turkish Lira.

Structure and formations over the 15-minute chart showed a distinct bearish bias, with a sharp 03:00 ET–16:00 ET decline breaking through key levels of support. A significant 5615.5-unit candle at 14:45 ET marked a deep sell-off, forming a bearish continuation pattern. A bearish engulfing pattern was observed at 04:30 ET as price dropped from 3.51 to 3.42 after a failed attempt to rebound. The price failed to form any bullish reversal setups during this decline, with most candles showing long lower shadows and weak closes.

Structure & Formations

The most notable support levels emerged at 3.43 and 3.35, where price found temporary bids before resuming the downward trend. Resistance levels were clearly broken at 3.58 and 3.62, suggesting further pressure to the downside. A key bearish pattern emerged between 04:30 ET and 05:45 ET with a 3.51–3.43 move showing a 0.08-point drop on heavy volume, confirming bearish sentiment.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both moved downward as price accelerated south. The 50-period line remained above the 20-period line, but both crossed below the price action late in the session. On a daily scale, if this trend continues, the 50-period, 100-period, and 200-period moving averages would all align in a bearish configuration.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD remained negative throughout the session, with the histogram contracting as price fell. RSI dipped to 25–30 levels late in the 24-hour window, indicating oversold conditions, but failed to trigger a rebound. This divergence between momentum and price suggests bearish exhaustion is still in play. A potential bounce might emerge if RSI holds above 25 without a large volume divergence.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the 03:00–04:30 ET window as the price moved between the 3.57 and 3.43 levels, with the Bollinger Bands widening to reflect the increased range. By the end of the session, price was near the lower band at 3.32, suggesting continued bearish pressure. A retest of the mid-band at 3.45 could offer short-term resistance.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to over 10,000 units during the 04:00–04:30 ET window as price moved from 3.57 to 3.42, confirming the strength of the downward move. However, during the final 2 hours, volume dropped significantly despite continued price declines, suggesting weakening bearish conviction. Total turnover followed a similar trend, peaking at around 166,685.6 Turkish Lira during the session’s peak sell-off.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the major 3.62–3.32 swing, key levels include 3.54 (38.2%), 3.48 (50%), and 3.43 (61.8%). Price tested 3.43 multiple times during the session, failing to hold and suggesting further support at 3.35–3.40. A break below 3.35 would open the door to deeper Fibonacci extensions.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed bearish continuation patterns and the RSI’s repeated oversold readings without meaningful bounces, a potential backtest strategy could focus on bearish entries during RSI oversold conditions (RSI < 30) combined with bearish engulfing or continuation patterns. A 2% stop-loss would be applied to manage risk. If executed over multiple sessions, this approach could capture the momentum seen in the 3.62–3.32 decline, especially if volume confirms the move. This aligns with the data source issue currently preventing access to POLYXTRY’s price series — the same rules could be applied to a supported symbol, such as POLYX-USDT, to backtest the strategy effectively.