Polymesh/Turkish Lira (POLYXTRY) Market Overview

• Price surged 2.3% on 15-minute timeframe following key break above 5.03.
• Volatility expanded late in session, with 1.1% range between daily high (5.13) and low (5.02).
• RSI crossed into overbought territory near close, suggesting possible near-term correction.
• Volume spiked at 19:30 and 05:15 ET, confirming key bullish and bearish reversals.
• Bollinger Bands tightened before breakout at 18:00 ET, signaling potential momentum shift.

Market Performance Summary

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-02, Polymesh/Turkish Lira (POLYXTRY) opened at 4.99, surged to 5.13, and closed the 24-hour period at 5.02 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-03. Total trading volume for the period was 25,595.5, with notional turnover reaching 128,610.7. The pair showed a volatile 24-hour range of 1.1% and a bullish bias into the afternoon, followed by a consolidation phase in the early hours of the next day.

Structure & Formations

Price action formed a strong bullish breakout above the 5.03 resistance level, confirmed by a high-volume candle at 19:30 ET. A subsequent 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 5.08 acted as temporary support, before price retested lower at 5.02, forming a bearish continuation pattern. Key support levels identified were at 5.02 and 4.99, while resistance remains at 5.13 and 5.12. A doji at 00:15 ET and a long-bodied bearish candle at 02:45 ET signaled indecision and a potential short-term pullback.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed above key support levels mid-session, reinforcing the bullish breakout. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sat just above 5.00, while the 200-period MA remained neutral, suggesting medium-term consolidation may follow. The 100-period MA on the daily chart acted as a psychological level of support in the early morning.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned positive at 18:00 ET, confirming the breakout. The histogram showed strong momentum into the late hours of the session. RSI reached overbought territory near 72 at 05:30 ET, signaling a likely near-term pullback. A bearish divergence developed between RSI and price action at 02:45 ET, reinforcing the idea that the current upleg may be running out of steam.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands tightened between 18:15 and 18:30 ET before the price broke above the upper band, confirming a momentum-driven move. Price remained above the 20-period moving average for much of the session but retracted below the lower band in early morning hours, indicating increased volatility and a consolidation phase ahead. The 1σ band expanded during the breakout, suggesting elevated near-term trading interest.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged at key turning points: 19:30 ET (1782.2), 05:15 ET (10040.5), and 00:15 ET (262.5). These spikes aligned with directional reversals, confirming the strength of the bullish breakout and the bearish pullback in the early morning. Notional turnover spiked in line with volume, showing strong conviction on both sides of the trade. A divergence occurred at 02:45 ET, where volume dropped despite a bearish price move, indicating potential fading momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 15-minute swing high at 5.13 and low at 5.02 provided key retracement levels, with 61.8% at 5.08 and 38.2% at 5.06. These levels acted as dynamic pivots throughout the session. On the daily chart, a major 61.8% retracement at 5.04 coincided with a consolidation phase, suggesting it could be a potential area of support in the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy based on a Bollinger Band squeeze at 18:15 ET, followed by a bullish breakout, could have generated a short-term profit of ~1.3% by 19:30 ET. The subsequent bearish reversal at 00:15 ET and 02:45 ET suggests a mean-reversion strategy may have captured additional gains during the consolidation phase. A combined breakout-followed-by-reversion approach could be profitable in low volatility environments with clear trend definitions.