Polymesh/Turkish Lira Market Overview for 2025-11-06

Summary
• Price surged to 2.98 before consolidating near 2.93–2.94.
• Volume spiked near 2.98 with minimal turnover during the consolidation phase.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed early evening, followed by bearish rejection.

Opening at 2.92 on 2025-11-05 at 12:00 ET, Polymesh/Turkish Lira (POLYXTRY) traded as high as 2.98 and as low as 2.91 before closing at 2.94 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-06. Total 24-hour volume was approximately 46,800.0 units, with total notional turnover amounting to approximately 118,777.5 TRY.

Structure & Formations

Price found resistance around 2.98 and support near 2.94 over the course of the session. A bullish engulfing pattern formed at 18:45 ET (2.94 opening to 2.96 closing), followed by a bearish rejection at 19:30 ET, where price opened at 2.97 and closed at 2.94. A doji appeared at 23:15 ET, suggesting indecision at the upper end of the range.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price oscillated between the 20-EMA and 50-EMA, indicating no clear directional bias. The daily chart showed a bearish crossover as the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA, reinforcing the likelihood of a short-term consolidation phase.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed into positive territory in the late afternoon but failed to sustain above the signal line. The RSI peaked at 65, indicating moderate strength but not overbought conditions. A divergence between price and RSI emerged during the 01:30–03:45 ET window, hinting at potential exhaustion in the downward move.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased in the late afternoon as the bands widened following the bullish engulfing pattern. Price spent the majority of the session within the 1–standard deviation range, but a brief breakout occurred at 23:15 ET before retreating.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply at 23:15 ET and again at 07:15 ET, coinciding with key price moves. Turnover remained stable until 07:15 ET, when a large 33,291.4 volume candle pushed price from 2.93 to 2.94, confirming the upward bias for the session.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, price found a 61.8% retracement level at 2.95, which acted as a minor resistance. On the daily chart, the 61.8% level at 2.93 provided support and helped reestablish a short-term base for the pair.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy focusing on Bullish Engulfing patterns over the past three years could offer valuable insights. By identifying these patterns and simulating a 3-day holding period, we can assess whether this formation leads to statistically significant gains in this market. The 2025-11-05 18:45 ET pattern, in particular, may provide a strong candidate for testing.