One Polymarket User Made More Than $400,000 in Profits Betting on Maduro's Capture on an Investment Made Within 24 Hours of the Military Action

A Polymarket user made over $400,000 in profit from bets on the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. The anonymous trader placed a $30,000 investment hours before U.S. forces announced their operation against Maduro. This event has sparked discussions about the speed and accuracy of prediction markets in forecasting political developments according to analysis.

The user’s bet centered on whether Maduro would be removed from power by January 31, 2026. The prediction was confirmed when U.S. President Donald Trump announced Maduro’s capture. The trader’s return was more than 1,240 percent, with total profits reaching $436,759.61. This outcome was widely reported across social media and financial platforms.

The timing of the bet has raised concerns about potential insider trading. The market for Maduro’s removal saw a sharp increase in activity just before the U.S. operation was announced. Some analysts suggest the trader had nonpublic information, which would give them an unfair advantage.

The trader used a newly created account to make the bet, which some critics say is a red flag for insider activity. The account was active only for a week and made multiple large wagers on U.S. military involvement in Venezuela.

The U.S. military operation was sudden and decisive. U.S. forces, including Delta Force units, captured Maduro and his wife from a military complex in Caracas. This marked the end of Maduro’s 18-year political tenure and a major shift in Venezuela’s political landscape according to reports.

Why Did This Happen?

Prediction markets, such as Polymarket, reacted quickly to the news. The “Maduro out” contract moved from a 5–7 cent probability to full value in hours. This rapid movement led to large payouts for traders who had positioned themselves before the event according to analysis.

The event also drew attention from lawmakers. Rep. Ritchie Torres announced plans to introduce the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026. The bill would restrict federal officials and political appointees from making trades on prediction markets when they possess nonpublic information according to reports.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Prediction markets are often seen as a “truth machine,” but this incident has highlighted their potential for abuse. Polymarket's CEO has defended the platform’s lack of insider trading rules, arguing that it encourages information disclosure.

By contrast, other prediction market platforms, such as Kalshi, already have rules to prevent insider trading. This divergence has led to calls for a uniform regulatory approach across the industry.

The capture of Maduro is also being analyzed for its geopolitical implications. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the operation was the culmination of diplomatic and military pressure. Some regional leaders have criticized the move as a violation of sovereignty according to reports.

The incident has also raised questions about how quickly prediction markets can price in real-world events. Traders who acted quickly reaped substantial gains, while others were left behind. This has led to speculation about the future of prediction markets as tools for financial and political forecasting according to analysis.