Polymarket Traders Predict 75% Chance Bitcoin Hits $120,000 by 2025

Bettors on the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket have expressed a strong conviction that Bitcoin will reach $120,000 by 2025. The platform's data indicates a 75% probability that the cryptocurrency will surpass this threshold by the end of the year. This sentiment is backed by a significant volume of $15.5 million in wagers, reflecting a high level of market confidence in Bitcoin's future performance.

Polymarket's data also provides insights into more ambitious price targets. Traders assign a 55% probability to Bitcoin exceeding $130,000 and a 33% chance of it breaking the $150,000 mark. More optimistic predictions, such as Bitcoin reaching $200,000, are given a 13% probability. These figures suggest a broad range of expectations among traders, with a clear majority leaning towards substantial price increases.

In contrast, a separate market focused on the immediate term shows a more conservative outlook. With over $3.5 million in volume, this market assigns a 58% probability for Bitcoin to be above $115,000 by August 1, 2025, but only a 30% chance of it crossing $120,000 in the same period. This divergence highlights the differing views on short-term versus long-term price movements.

The platform's user base and trading volume have seen significant growth, particularly during the 2024 U.S. election. According to data from Dune Analytics, Polymarket's monthly volume peaked at $2.6 billion in November 2024. This growth has continued, with last month's trading volume standing at $1.16 billion, more than nine times higher than the volume recorded in June of the previous year. The number of active traders also surged, reaching 241,000 last month, more than seven times higher than the previous year.

Despite the decline in the number of active traders since January 2025, the platform's volume has rebounded, growing 30% from April to June 2025. This suggests a consolidation of activity among a smaller group of more heavily capitalized or higher-conviction traders. The average volume per trader has recovered from a low of approximately $2,000 in February 2025 to around $4,800 in June 2025, supporting the idea that existing users are trading in larger sizes.

While prediction markets offer a novel form of sentiment analysis, their forecasts reflect current, crowd-sourced beliefs and not certain outcomes. The user base may not represent the broader financial world, and all markets carry inherent risks, including the potential for manipulation by actors with large amounts of capital. However, Polymarket outperformed almost all traditional polling methods during the U.S. 2025 election, indicating its potential as a reliable indicator of market sentiment.

The substantial volume and clear directional probability on display provide a distinct, data-driven perspective on where active traders expect Bitcoin’s price to trend. As of the press time price of $109,093, the data suggests a strong bullish sentiment among Polymarket users, with a high probability of significant price increases in the coming years.