Polymarket Traders See Just 21% Chance of Bitcoin Hitting $150K This Year

Polymarket traders assigned a 21% probability of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by the end of 2026. This suggests a cautious stance despite growing institutional optimism for the cryptocurrency. The prediction market reflects a broader shift in trader sentiment as the four-year halving cycle ends.

The 21% odds mark a sharp divergence from analysts' expectations, which have mostly clustered around the $150,000 range. Institutions like Standard Chartered and Bernstein have adjusted their forecasts lower, citing slower ETF inflows and macroeconomic uncertainty. Meanwhile, bullish voices like Tom Lee of Fundstrat and Charles Hoskinson of Cardano see higher potential.

Market psychology appears to be shaping these outcomes. The four-year cycle, historically tied to Bitcoin's price peaks, closed out in 2025 with a red year for BTC. This may have contributed to the cautious stance among traders, who are now pricing in a higher probability of a range-bound market.

Why Did This Happen?

Polymarket data shows traders favoring the $100,000 level, with an 80% probability assigned to that outcome. The odds drop significantly as price targets increase, with only 21% assigned to $150,000 and 41% to $130,000. This suggests a preference for a conservative baseline.

The technical indicators support this view. The SuperTrend and MACD signals have turned bearish, with Bitcoin dropping below its 50-week moving average. These historical signals have previously marked the end of bull markets. Analysts like Rekt Capital estimate the current cycle is over 93% complete.

How Did Markets Respond?

The broader market has shown mixed signals. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $21.4 billion in net inflows for 2025, despite a late-year price pullback. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) led the way with $24.7 billion in inflows.

Institutional adoption is also on the rise. The GENIUS Act and CLARITY Act are expected to provide regulatory clarity, potentially unlocking more institutional participation. Coinbase and other platforms are preparing for increased demand as crypto integration in traditional finance accelerates.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Analysts are closely monitoring macroeconomic conditions, particularly Federal Reserve policy. Abra CEO Bill Barhydt expects Fed liquidity injections in 2026 to support Bitcoin's price. The Fed's December 2025 minutes indicate openness to rate cuts, which could boost risk appetite.

Polymarket data also reflects this uncertainty. The probability of a January rate cut stands at just 15%, but rises to 52% for March. Bitcoin's reaction to previous rate cuts was sharp but short-lived, with a 44% peak-to-trough drawdown in late 2025.

Regulatory clarity remains a key factor. The U.S. administration has taken a crypto-friendly stance, with new SEC leadership and executive orders encouraging integration into retirement accounts. The CLARITY Act, expected to pass in early 2026, will provide a legal framework for banks to handle digital assets.

Investor sentiment remains cautious. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has lingered in the Fear territory since December 2025, reflecting ongoing volatility and uncertainty. This suggests retail participation may remain subdued until macroeconomic and regulatory signals stabilize.

Bitcoin's 200-day moving average turned bearish in November 2025, with a death cross signaling potential declines in 2026. Analysts like Benjamin Cowen argue that the asset could rebound to the 200-day SMA around $108,000 before resuming a downtrend.