Polymarket Tracker: Trump Fuels Canada 51st State Debate
2min read As Canadians headed to the polls in a closely watched parliamentary election, former U.S. President Donald Trump caused a political stir by posting on Truth Social that Canada “should have become the 51st U.S. state long ago” and urging voters to “elect a leader who will make it happen.” His remarks came just hours after polls opened and sparked an immediate backlash across Canadian political circles.
“America can no longer afford to subsidize Canada by hundreds of billions a year,” Trump claimed in his controversial post.
📈 Polymarket Odds Rise Slightly—But Still Unlikely
The post appears to have sparked light but notable activity on prediction platform Polymarket. As shown in the chart, the odds of Canada becoming the 51st U.S. state before July jumped from 1% to 2%, with nearly $900,000 in total volume traded. While the market clearly assigns a near-zero probability to actual annexation, the uptick reflects heightened attention and political tension around the statement.
Though clearly improbable, the rise signals how meme-driven or provocative political commentary—especially from Trump—can still ripple through speculative markets.
🇨🇦 Political Fallout in Canada
Trump’s comments immediately became a flashpoint in Canada's election discourse. Although he did not endorse any specific candidate, media outlets report that his statement inadvertently benefited the center-left Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney. Carney’s team seized on Trump’s statement as a warning, using it to stoke nationalist sentiment and frame the vote as a referendum on Canadian sovereignty.
“America’s crisis doesn’t stop at their borders,” Carney stated in his final campaign speech. “But this is Canada. We decide what happens here.”
Carney’s main rival, Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre—often likened to Trump in tone and style—was quick to distance himself from the remark, posting on X (formerly Twitter):
“President Trump, stay out of our election… We will never be the 51st state.”
📊 Trump May Have Shifted the Electoral Balance
According to polling analysis by Abacus Data, the campaign was previously tilting in favor of Poilievre. However, Trump’s unsolicited intrusion into the race appears to have energized Liberal voters and reshaped the political terrain.
David Coletto, CEO of Abacus, remarked:
“What looked like a likely Conservative win has turned into an unpredictable race. Carney’s momentum in the final weeks has been significant, in part due to a surge in patriotic sentiment.”
💵 Cross-Border Implications: Trade, Tariffs, and Beyond
Beyond politics, Trump’s reference to U.S. “subsidies” to Canada ties into a longer pattern of protectionist rhetoric. Trump has repeatedly threatened tariffs on Canadian goods and accused Canada of unfair trade practices. Analysts warn that such rhetoric—especially if tied to future policy—could impact North American trade flows and investor sentiment in industries from automotive to agriculture.
Market observers, including those on platforms like Polymarket, are watching closely. While Canada joining the U.S. remains politically implausible, the broader implication is clear: populist interventions—even across borders—can influence voter behavior, financial markets, and geopolitical stability.
