Polymarket Tracker: U.S Military Strike on Iran Odds Surge to 80%

Tensions in the Middle East are escalating rapidly, with prediction markets now heavily pricing in the possibility of U.S. military action against Iran before the end of June.

According to forecasting platform Polymarket, the probability of a U.S. strike on Iran has surged to 80%, up 68% in recent days.

Concurrently, markets estimate a 59% chance that Iran’s underground Fordo nuclear facility could be destroyed before July.

The dramatic rise in probabilities follows increased political rhetoric and military posturing. Former President Donald Trump has publicly called for Iran’s “unconditional surrender”, while reports from Washington suggest that Trump’s inner circle is increasingly leaning toward a direct military response amid Israel-Iran hostilities.

🛡 Strategic Targets: Fordo in the Crosshairs

The Fordo nuclear site, buried deep within the mountains of Iran, is among the most fortified nuclear facilities in the world. Any attempt to destroy it would likely require heavy bunker-buster munitions—weapons currently only possessed by the U.S. and potentially supplied to Israel under specific conditions.

Israeli air power alone is unlikely to reach or neutralize Fordo without U.S. logistical and aerial support. This technical dependency is one reason analysts view any attack on Fordo as an indirect signal of full U.S. engagement in the regional conflict.

🚢 Military Buildup and Market Reactions

In recent weeks, the U.S. has quietly expanded its military footprint in the Middle East, reportedly dispatching additional warships, fighter jets, and refueling assets to the region. Though not officially confirmed as part of an offensive operation, the deployment suggests a readiness for escalation.

For financial markets, a full-scale U.S.-Iran confrontation would have sweeping implications: oil price volatility, regional equity selloffs, and global risk-off sentiment are all plausible near-term outcomes.