Polymarket Tracker: India 85% Likely for U.S. Deal

As global markets assess the trajectory of U.S. trade policy under President Trump’s administration, data from Polymarket reveals that India currently holds the highest probability—85%—of signing a trade agreement with the United States before July 1, 2025. This is not just a speculative uptick: it reflects growing confidence across diplomatic and financial circles that a U.S.-India deal is within reach.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has publicly stated that India is expected to be among the “first wave” of countries to finalize new trade arrangements. New Delhi is pushing for a phased agreement that could help ease its current account pressures and safeguard its export sector from global headwinds. In its April economic review, the Indian Ministry of Finance stated that a deal with the U.S. could "transform existing external vulnerabilities into strategic strengths."

Vietnam and the China Substitution Strategy

Vietnam ranks second in likelihood at 69%, despite a 3-point decline this week. The Trump administration continues to pursue its strategy of decoupling from China, and Vietnam stands out as a top candidate to absorb redirected U.S. supply chains. However, re-export loopholes remain a key friction point: Washington insists Hanoi must curb Chinese transshipment practices. Vietnam’s challenge lies in certifying its exports as genuinely Vietnamese, not rerouted Chinese goods.

EU Talks Rebound After Tariff Threats

Despite recent tensions, the European Union stands at a 54% chance of reaching a deal, buoyed by mutual economic dependencies and strong lobbying from major European economies. Last week, Trump threatened a 50% tariff hike on EU goods, only to retreat after a phone call with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. The new negotiation window—now extended to July 9—suggests both sides are willing to avert a full-blown trade war. France, Spain, and Belgium have all signaled support for an expedited deal.

Both the U.S. and the EU understand the stakes. With bilateral trade worth over $1.7 trillion annually, neither side can afford escalation. European governments, wary of economic uncertainty, are pushing for a deal that shields their industrial exports while avoiding heavy taxation on U.S. tech giants operating in Europe.

China Left Off the List: A Structural Standstill

Notably absent from the Polymarket forecast is China, highlighting the entrenched structural conflict between the two superpowers. Sources suggest that the probability of a U.S.-China trade pact before July remains well below 30%. Persistent frictions over technology, security, and industrial policy make any near-term breakthrough unlikely.

Other Key Watchpoints

Argentina has surged by 16 percentage points to 65%, possibly reflecting improving bilateral ties and agricultural export dynamics.

Japan (59%) and South Korea (47%) remain mid-table, as negotiations hinge on semiconductor supply chain coordination.

Mexico (37%), Canada (37%), and Australia (36%) all lag due to complex regional trade politics and cross-border labor rules.

Brazil trails at the bottom with a 31% probability, hampered by environmental and regulatory disputes.