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Polymarket Tracker: U.S.-China Talks Loom, No Tariff Cut in Sight

Wallstreet InsightThursday, May 8, 2025 8:04 am ET
2min read

As anticipation builds for the upcoming U.S.-China trade talks in Geneva, President Donald Trump on Wednesday firmly dismissed the possibility of lowering tariffs on Chinese goods, despite appeals from Beijing.

When asked in the Oval Office whether he would reduce tariffs—which currently stand at a minimum of 145%—to help initiate negotiations, Trump replied bluntly: “No.” His response immediately shifted expectations on prediction markets. On Polymarket, the probability of Trump lowering tariffs by May 31 dropped 14%, from 61% to 47%.

Trump also contradicted China’s assertion that the meeting was arranged at Washington’s request. “I think they should go back and check their records,” he said, implying it was in fact Beijing that sought the dialogue—a claim that underscores the political sensitivity surrounding who appears to be yielding.

Senior U.S. officials are still scheduled to meet with their Chinese counterparts this weekend. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamison Greer will hold talks in Geneva on Saturday and Sunday to discuss economic issues. While both economies are suffering under the weight of the ongoing trade war, neither side wants to be seen as the first to blink.

Chinese officials confirmed that He Lifeng, the country’s top trade negotiator, will attend the talks. Beijing has attempted to position itself as the more responsible party while maintaining a firm tone: “You better perform well in these talks,” one official reportedly said.

Still, observers note that the very fact that talks are happening reflects a slight softening in China's stance, particularly as economic data begins to show the toll of prolonged tensions.

Chinese factory output has slowed to its weakest pace in over a year, and exports to the U.S. have declined significantly. American retailers are warning of inventory shortages. On the other side, the U.S. economy contracted in Q1, and corporations are now revising down their growth expectations.

In a Fox News interview Tuesday night, Secretary Bessent emphasized that de-escalation would be the priority in Geneva: “We need to de-escalate first before we can move forward,” he said.

Experts remain skeptical about any major breakthroughs.

Associate Professor Foo Fangjian of Singapore Management University told Lianhe Zaobao that the choice of Switzerland as the meeting location signals a low level of trust between both sides and a desire not to lose face.

Stephen Olson, visiting fellow at the ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute, added that the U.S. and China face deep structural tensions, making any quick resolution unlikely. He predicted the talks might end with a generic statement about “open dialogue and willingness to continue negotiations.”

Meanwhile, Polymarket participants continue to weigh the odds. As of now, the market reflects only a 47% chance that Trump will ease tariffs by May 31, with prices shifting sharply after his blunt rejection.As anticipation builds for the upcoming U.S.-China trade talks in Geneva, President Donald Trump on Wednesday firmly dismissed the possibility of lowering tariffs on Chinese goods, despite appeals from Beijing.

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Nobuevrday
05/08
De-escalation in Geneva? Sounds good, but structural issues run deep. Any breakthroughs would be a surprise.
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GraceBoorFan
05/09
@Nobuevrday Yeah, good luck with that.
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Anklebreakers10
05/09
@Nobuevrday True, deep issues there. Any breakthroughs would be a surprise.
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Excellent_Chest_5896
05/08
Geneva talks might be a chess match. Neither side blinks first. I'm holding $AAPL long-term. Trade wars are noise; innovation is the real game-changer.
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Hopeful_Confusion870
05/08
"Geneva talks? More like a staring contest in the middle of nowhere. Trump's 145% tariffs are the new punchline. 47% chance he eases up? More like 100% chance he's still flexing. Economies are suffering, but neither side wants to blink first. The trade war's a joke, and everyone's laughing except the wallets. #TariffsAreTheNewJoke
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abdul10000
05/08
Genevan talks might end in stalemate, no biggie.
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2strange4things
05/08
Tariff hike hurts, but diversify strategy, peeps.
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PunchTornado
05/08
$AAPL survives tariff mess, long-term hold for me.
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Imaginary-Milk-7454
05/08
"Talks in Geneva? More like a high-stakes chess match with both queens missing. Trump's tariffs are a checkmate threat, and China's factories are in check. Might as well serve tea and crumpets—this stalemate could last all night. #TradeWars #NoWinners
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Gix-99
05/08
Trump's tariff stance hardens. Are prediction markets overreacting, or is this the turning point?
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Free-Initiative7508
05/08
Market's overreacting to Trump's "no tariff cut." It's a negotiation, folks. 🚀
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Dosimetry4Ever
05/08
Both sides losing face with each passing day. Eventually, someone's gotta blink. Who will it be, and when?
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AbuSaho
05/08
Geneva talks feel like a chess match. Neither side wants to yield, but the economy's paying the price.
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ThatUnoriginalGuy
05/09
@AbuSaho It's a stalemate, but markets feel the pain.
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hexrain1
05/09
@AbuSaho Neither side blinks, economies suffer.
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Booknerdworm
05/08
Tariffs up, markets down. Trump's call: bearish signal or opportunity to buy the dip? 🤔
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joprax
05/09
@Booknerdworm Bearish signal? Or just noise?
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Shakyhedgehog
05/09
@Booknerdworm Agreed, buy the dip.
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Zurkarak
05/08
Geneva meet = deadlocked standoff, not selling hope.
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Famous_Law1749
05/08
@Zurkarak Yeah, talks might stall.
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SojournerHope22
05/08
Trump's "no" makes Polymarket odds go brrrr
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aiolyfe
05/08
Trump's tariff stance firm, short-term volatility likely.
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