Polymarket Shows 85% Odds the Crypto CLARITY Act Passes in 2026

The CLARITY Act, a significant regulatory proposal for the U.S. crypto sector, has gained momentum in 2026, with prediction markets pricing in an 82% to 85% chance of its passage by year-end. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has raised the bill's odds to 90% by April, citing ongoing White House negotiations as a key driver of progress. The legislation seeks to resolve years of regulatory ambiguity by clearly defining the roles of the SEC and CFTC in overseeing digital assets.

The bill is currently in a critical negotiation phase, with the White House setting a March 1 deadline for resolving disagreements over stablecoin yield. This issue remains a core point of contention, as banks and crypto firms have diverging views on the potential impacts of interest-bearing stablecoins. The outcome will determine whether the act can move forward with bipartisan support and regulatory clarity.

A third round of negotiations between crypto and banking stakeholders is scheduled for Thursday. If successful, the act could be signed into law by summer, providing a regulatory framework that could attract institutional investors and stabilize the U.S. digital asset market.

Why Did This Happen?

The CLARITY Act has gained urgency due to growing demand for a clear regulatory structure. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse highlighted the progress made during recent White House meetings, which have narrowed the divide between crypto firms and banks. The House passed the bill in July 2025 with bipartisan support, but Senate negotiations stalled over jurisdictional disputes and stablecoin regulations.

The White House has played an active role in facilitating dialogue between industry stakeholders, with a focus on resolving stablecoin-related issues before the November midterms. This effort is part of broader regulatory coordination under 'Project Crypto,' which aims to streamline oversight and reduce ambiguity for market participants.

How Did Markets React?

Market sentiment remains mixed, with prediction markets reflecting strong but not universal optimism. Polymarket traders have priced in an 82% chance of the CLARITY Act being signed into law, slightly below Garlinghouse's 90% estimate. Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies have traded in a range as participants await further clarity.

For XRP, the act's passage could reinforce its non-security status and encourage institutional adoption. Ripple has already made significant investments in custody and treasury infrastructure, positioning itself to capitalize on a potential regulatory breakthrough.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Analysts are closely following the stablecoin yield debate as a key determinant of the bill's success. Banks continue to resist interest-bearing stablecoins, arguing they could undermine traditional deposit systems, while crypto firms see them as a driver of innovation.

The White House has set a March 1 deadline for finalizing negotiations, with the goal of delivering a compromise by summer. If this timeline is met, the CLARITY Act could reshape the U.S. digital asset landscape and position the country as a global regulatory leader.

A final decision on stablecoin provisions will likely determine the bill's long-term impact on market participants, consumer protection, and financial stability. If a compromise is reached, it could pave the way for broader institutional entry into the crypto space.