Polymarket Predicts Probability of Bitcoin Reaching $100,000 in January Drops to 29%

Bitcoin’s probability of reaching $100,000 by the end of January has dropped to 29% according to prediction market data.

The decline reflects shifting sentiment among traders, who are now less confident about a near-term breakout to that level. Earlier in January, the odds had briefly climbed as high as 70% as the cryptocurrency approached $95,000.

The market is now weighing key macroeconomic developments, including the upcoming Supreme Court ruling on Trump-era tariffs, which could have broad implications for global markets and inflation expectations.

Why Did This Happen?

Bitcoin’s price peaked at nearly $95,000 in early January but has since retreated, facing resistance at that level. Whale activity had previously signaled accumulation, but recent price behavior suggests caution among institutional players.

The decline in odds also aligns with broader macroeconomic uncertainty, including mixed signals from traditional markets and geopolitical tensions. Bitcoin’s role as both a growth and a hedge asset has attracted renewed investor attention.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Analysts are focusing on Bitcoin’s ability to retest and break above key resistance levels, including the $94,000 mark, to confirm a sustained bullish trend.

Institutional investors and traders are also monitoring the implications of the upcoming Supreme Court decision on tariffs. A ruling against the Trump administration could have disinflationary effects and support risk-on sentiment across multiple asset classes.

Prediction markets have integrated real-time data into major financial news platforms like the Wall Street Journal and MarketWatch as part of a broader partnership with Polymarket. This move underscores the growing influence of prediction markets as a tool for assessing market sentiment and collective expectations.

Bitcoin’s market capitalization has risen to nearly $3.3 trillion, with the crypto market showing signs of stabilization after a volatile end to 2025. However, the path to $100,000 remains uncertain, with both internal and external factors influencing near-term price action.

How Might the Market React?

A breakout above $95,000 could reignite bullish sentiment and increase the probability of hitting $100,000. However, any failure to hold above key levels could lead to further consolidation or a test of support near $85,000.

Analysts also highlight the importance of institutional flows and macroeconomic signals in shaping Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory. The broader crypto market is showing signs of recovery, but a true bull market will depend on sustained inflows and favorable macroeconomic conditions.

For now, investors are watching closely as Bitcoin navigates the critical threshold of $95,000 and as macroeconomic developments unfold in the coming weeks.