Polymarket Predicts 99% Chance of Israel-Iran Strike, Volume Surges 14%

As global tensions escalate, particularly following the Israel-Iran conflict, traditional investors are seeking safety in assets like gold. Meanwhile, crypto enthusiasts, often referred to as "crypto degens," are turning to the crypto-based betting platform, Polymarket, to wager on geopolitical events. Polymarket gained prominence for accurately predicting President Donald Trump’s 2024 election victory before other traditional news outlets and polls. It has since become a leading venue for those making bets on the escalating crisis between Israel and Iran, effectively becoming a high-stakes casino for the geopolitical drama in the Middle East.

Polymarket's top active markets are centered on the escalating Israel-Iran conflict. The platform predicted an 88% chance of Israel striking Iran in June, a 71% chance of the strike hitting Iranian nuclear facilities, and a 99% chance of the strike happening by Friday, the 13th. Following the accurate prediction of the strike, punters took to Polymarket to place more wagers, resulting in the top prediction markets being dominated by the wagers placed on the conflict. The market went as high as a 99% chance that Iran would strike Israel in June, pulling in over $1 million in volume. Iran struck Israel in a military attack later on the same day, June 13.

Polymarket also estimates a 42% chance of the U.S. taking military action against Iran before July. Another market that has sprung up with the Middle East conflict is the spike in the price of Brent crude. It currently predicts a 44% chance that Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz, which could further lead to global oil prices skyrocketing. Another market that could soon gain momentum is the prediction about whether Iran will confirm the possession of a nuclear weapon by 2025. This follows Israel’s claims that its preemptive strikes were on Iran’s nuclear facilities. This market has gained over $154,000 in volume.

These markets operate in a regulatory grey area. After being fined $1.4 million by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in 2022, Polymarket banned U.S. users from its platform. Placing wagers on real-time geopolitical crises raises ethical concerns. Critics argue that it could be seen as trivializing suffering and incentivizing misinformation. Also, there are concerns of market manipulation, with the CFTC saying prediction markets are vulnerable to manipulation.

On Friday, 13, 2025, Israel declared a special emergency following preemptive strikes on Iran, which are reported to have hit Iranian nuclear facilities and killed top Iranian generals. This event sent ripples through the global financial market. With fears of broader conflicts arising, assets such as gold are seeing inflows. An ounce of gold has gained 1.2% to $3,444.70. Bitcoin dropped sharply, falling below $103,000 as investors fled risk assets; however, it quickly gained $105,700, a little bit off its intraday high. Brent crude surged about 14% intraday, settling at about $75.54/barrel, driven by fears of disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, which is responsible for about a fifth of global consumption flows and bordered by Iran, which also happens to be one of the world’s largest exporters of oil. Global stocks were hit; the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell about 0.4%, with the Dow industrials losing about 600 points.