Polymarket's Prediction Market on Bitcoin Hitting $100,000 in January Sees Probability Drop to 25%

Bitcoin (BTC) traded near $95,000 on January 19, 2026, amid shifting market sentiment and uncertainty over regulatory developments. Institutional ETF inflows have slowed, with the Senate delaying key crypto legislation, creating uncertainty for investors.

Polymarket, a popular prediction market, has revised downward the probability of Bitcoin hitting $100,000 by the end of January 2026. The probability now stands at 25%, down from a previous 27%. The market remains divided, with 61% chance assigned to Bitcoin reaching $95,000.

Geopolitical tensions, particularly U.S.-EU trade issues and concerns over new tariffs, have driven risk-off sentiment in global markets. Bitcoin dropped 3.1% to $92,415 on January 15 after trade war fears resurfaced. Analysts attribute the decline to broader market uncertainty rather than crypto-specific fundamentals.

Why Did This Happen?

Market observers point to a combination of factors shaping Bitcoin's recent performance. The U.S. Treasury and Senate have postponed key crypto legislation, raising uncertainty for investors. Additionally, prediction market platforms show mixed investor sentiment, with probabilities shifting toward lower price targets.

ETF inflows, which had reached $843.6 million on January 15, declined sharply the following day, suggesting a cooling of institutional demand. This drop follows concerns raised by crypto executives, including Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, over the restrictive language in the proposed Senate bill.

How Did Markets React?

The broader crypto market reflected Bitcoin's volatility. Altcoin prices also dropped, with the DePIN sector falling 4.22% over 24 hours. Filecoin (FIL) and Golem (GLM) fell more than 8% and 10%, respectively.

Despite the downturn, some market participants remain optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term trajectory. Analysts at BlockBeats and other outlets project a range of $80,000–$150,000 for 2026, with an average target of $120,000.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Investors and analysts are closely monitoring regulatory developments and ETF inflows. A successful institutional adoption phase could provide the next catalyst for a price breakout. Bitcoin must hold above $94,500 to maintain bullish momentum.

Other market players are exploring Bitcoin as a strategic asset. Steak 'n Shake, for example, added $10 million in Bitcoin to its treasury after seeing a 15% increase in same-store sales following the adoption of Lightning Network payments. The company has not outlined specific future purchase targets but emphasized a long-term, disciplined approach to Bitcoin accumulation.

Prediction markets also remain active in other areas. Bets on Rick Rieder's potential appointment as the next Federal Reserve chair have increased, with Kalshi and Polymarket tracking heightened interest in his candidacy.

The crypto market remains in flux as institutional demand, regulatory uncertainty, and macroeconomic factors intersect. Investors are advised to monitor key price levels and developments in both the U.S. and global regulatory landscapes.