Polymarket Pays 13x on a Movie That Hasn't Even Opened Yet -- and the Russos Are Back

Spider-Man: Brand New Day just broke Avengers: Endgame's domestic opening record with $360 million. The Polymarket crowd has crowned it at 91.5 cents to be the highest-grossing movie of 2026. But Avengers: Doomsday -- directed by the brothers who made Infinity War and Endgame, featuring Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom -- is sitting at 7.5 cents. That's a 13-to-1 payout on the most successful franchise in cinema history. And the movie doesn't even come out until December 18.

The opening weekend that broke the record books.

Last weekend, Spider-Man: Brand New Day swung into theaters and did something nobody thought would happen again -- it beat Avengers: Endgame's all-time domestic opening record. The final tally: $360 million in North America, $932 million globally, according to CNBC. Sony's Tom Rothman said it best: "Records are made to be broken, but we will take great pride in this one, for as long as we hold it." Forbes called it the biggest box office debut ever.

It was a monster weekend. The kind that makes you think "yeah, that's the #1 movie of the year, done deal."

The Polymarket crowd certainly thinks so. They've priced Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 91.5 cents to be the top-grossing film of 2026. That's near-lock territory. The event has $2.5 million in liquidity and resolves December 31. The market has spoken.

But here's the thing about December 31. It's not August 31.

See the full board and live odds on Polymarket ->

Avengers: Doomsday releases December 18, 2026. Same day as Dune: Part 3 -- the trades are already calling it "Dunesday". The Russos are back in the director's chair. Anthony and Joe Russo directed Infinity War and Endgame, which together grossed over $4 billion at the box office. Robert Downey Jr. is returning to the MCU as Doctor Doom. The Marvel Cinematic Universe has generated nearly $33 billion at the global box office -- the highest total for any film franchise in history.

And Polymarket is pricing it at 7.5 cents.

The math is almost absurd.

At 7.5 cents, buying $100 worth of Avengers: Doomsday YES shares gets you roughly 1,333 shares. If Doomsday ends up as the highest-grossing movie of 2026, those shares are worth $1,333. That's a $1,233 profit on a $100 bet. A 13.3x return.

The counter-case is real and honest: Spider-Man: No Way Home did $1.9 billion total. Brand New Day could follow a similar trajectory. If Spider-Man holds the top spot through New Year's Eve, that $100 goes to zero. Doomsday also opens the same day as Dune: Part 3, splitting the December blockbuster audience. Business Insider notes the movie was already delayed from its original spring 2026 window, and losing IMAX screens to Dune is a real headwind.

Here's why this trade feels like finding a twenty in an old coat.

The crowd is pricing a movie that just opened. They're reacting to this weekend's headlines. The Spider-Man news cycle is everywhere -- Channel NewsAsia, US News, every outlet on earth. The Avengers: Doomsday news cycle is buried in Comic-Con coverage from two weeks ago.

The market is systematically underpricing the one thing that consistently reshuffles the box-office deck: the December release that hasn't happened yet. Avengers: Endgame was the #2 highest-grossing movie of all time. Marvel has the deepest bench of any franchise in cinema. The Russos have never made a movie that lost money. And none of that is priced in at 7.5 cents.

The share-trigger line: Spider-Man just had the best opening weekend in history. And the smartest money on Polymarket is betting against it holding the crown.

Summary

The trade: Buy Avengers: Doomsday YES at ~7.5c on Polymarket. $100 buys ~1,333 shares. If Doomsday is the highest-grossing movie of 2026, those shares are worth ~$1,333. If Spider-Man holds the top spot, the stake goes to zero. The event resolves December 31, 2026.

Disclaimer: Prediction markets are speculative. Odds change. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. This is not financial advice.

Sources

• CNBC: Spider-Man: Brand New Day beats Endgame for highest domestic opening ever
• Forbes: Spider-Man: Brand New Day Tops Endgame for Biggest Box Office Debut Ever
• Reuters: Marvel unveils Ghost Rider, Black Panther 3 at Comic-Con; Doomsday Dec 18
• Business Insider: Avengers: Doomsday release date, plot, cast, trailer
• Channel NewsAsia: Spider-Man: Brand New Day beats Endgame box office record
• US News: Spider-Man: Brand New Day Beats Endgame Box Office Record