Polymarket and Kalshi DAUs Fall 93%–98% After 2024 Election Surge

The prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi, which gained unprecedented traction during the 2024 U.S. presidential election, are now grappling with a steep decline in user engagement, according to analysis of app store data and industry metrics. While the platforms reached peak daily activity in November 2024—Kalshi’s daily active users (DAUs) hitting 400,000 and Polymarket’s reaching 300,000—subsequent figures reveal a precipitous drop. By mid-June 2025, DAUs for Kalshi had fallen to 27,000–32,000, and Polymarket’s numbers ranged between 5,000 and 10,000. Similarly, daily downloads for Kalshi in October 2024 exceeded 100,000 but plummeted to around 13,000 by June 2025, while Polymarket’s downloads dropped below 50,000 to a low of 5,000–10,000 [1]. These declines highlight the challenge of sustaining momentum beyond high-profile events like presidential elections, which initially drove mass adoption.

The platforms’ post-election lull contrasts with their performance in niche, event-driven markets. In May 2025, Polymarket and Kalshi collectively facilitated over $40 million in trades related to the papal conclave, a period marked by unexpected outcomes and heightened user speculation [2]. This suggests residual demand for prediction markets in scenarios where real-time data and uncertainty drive interest. Both companies have also seen spikes in activity for non-presidential events, such as New York’s mayoral primary and the Super Bowl, as well as pop culture phenomena like The White Lotus finale. These episodes indicate that while election cycles remain a unique driver, the platforms can leverage other high-attention events to maintain relevance.

The user exodus raises questions about the scalability of prediction market models. Unlike mainstream apps like TikTok—averaging 69 million DAUs or 200,000 daily downloads—Polymarket and Kalshi lack the broad appeal of general-interest platforms. Analysts note that the post-election rush likely exhausted casual users seeking quick profits, leaving the core audience of bettors for niche, high-impact events [1]. This dynamic is not unique to prediction markets; speculative trading platforms often face attrition after major events. However, the decline underscores the need for Polymarket and Kalshi to diversify their offerings beyond election cycles.

Despite the challenges, opportunities remain. Polymarket, which is barred from serving U.S. customers but may soon expand there, is exploring the launch of a cryptocurrency to incentivize engagement. Kalshi, meanwhile, has seen success in sports betting and entertainment-related wagers, hinting at the potential to capture audiences beyond traditional financial or political markets [1]. Both platforms are also in talks with major companies to provide bespoke data, a move that could stabilize revenue streams independent of user growth.

Regulatory ambiguity further complicates their trajectory. While prediction markets occupy a gray area in the U.S. and EU, this lack of clarity provides a window for innovation. The platforms’ ability to integrate blockchain-based tools and tokenized assets could attract tech-savvy users seeking alternatives to legacy financial systems. However, as traditional bookmakers increasingly enter the space, Polymarket and Kalshi must differentiate themselves through speed, transparency, and niche expertise.

In the short term, the drop in users reflects the volatility of speculative platforms. Yet, the $40 million in papal conclave trades and ongoing interest in event-driven wagers suggest these markets can sustain activity if strategically curated. For long-term success, Polymarket and Kalshi must balance the allure of high-profile events with the development of consistent, smaller-scale offerings—such as corporate earnings predictions or commodity price fluctuations. By expanding into underdeveloped sectors and leveraging technological innovation, the platforms may yet redefine their role in the financial ecosystem.

Source:

[1] [Polymarket and Kalshi see massive drop in users] [https://fortune.com/2025/07/24/polymarket-and-kalshi-user-numbers/]

[2] [Kalshi Promo Code: Use 'COVERS' for $10 Bonus in 2025] [https://www.covers.com/betting/bonuses/kalshi-promo-code]