Polymarket Faces Backlash Over Zelenskyy Suit Market Ruling

Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market platform, recently faced controversy over a market that asked whether Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy would be photographed or videotaped wearing a suit between March 22 and June 30. The market, which drew significant attention and trading volume, ultimately closed with a resolution of “No,” despite widespread media coverage suggesting that Zelenskyy had worn a suit during a NATO event in the Netherlands on June 24.

The decentralized oracle operated by UMA ruled the evidence insufficient, citing a lack of “consensus of credible reporting.” Initially resolved as “Yes,” the contract outcome was reversed after a challenge, with a second review ultimately locking in the “No” result on Tuesday evening. This ruling sparked backlash from traders and commentators, who accused the protocol of inconsistency and poor governance. Critics pointed to multiple press reports and visual footage that clearly showed Zelenskyy in a black jacket, collared shirt, and matching trousers—an ensemble many argued met the criteria for a suit.

Some traders noted that a similar outfit worn by Zelenskyy in a previous market had also been ruled as not qualifying as a suit, suggesting the rejection was in line with precedent. However, the reaction was heated, with prominent figures in the crypto space expressing their frustration. Martin Shkreli, a polarizing figure, livestreamed his frustration on July 1, labeling the resolution process a “scam” and threatening to raise the issue with Polymarket’s backers. The controversy spilled into rival platforms, with traders on Myriad Markets launching bets on how Polymarket’s oracle would rule.

Prominent menswear commentator Derek Guy added fuel to the fire, quipping on June 26 that the outfit was “both a suit and not a suit.” This is not the first time Zelenskyy’s wardrobe has triggered a betting uproar on Polymarket. A similar dispute erupted in May over whether his outfit during a German meeting counted as a suit. That market ultimately ruled “no,” despite Derek Guy asserting the matching cloth made it technically a suit.

Despite the controversy, Polymarket continues to grow in popularity and user base. The platform is close to securing a $200 million funding round led by Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund, valuing the crypto-based prediction platform at $1 billion. Despite being banned in the U.S. and raided by the FBI last year, Polymarket’s user base and market activity have surged, with over 21,000 open markets. The platform recently partnered with Elon Musk’s X to integrate prediction markets with Grok, X’s AI chatbot, boosting its visibility amid ongoing regulatory hurdles.

Polymarket has seen explosive growth since the 2024 U.S. election, hitting a $2.5 billion trading peak in November, but it remains restricted in several countries and faces criticism over potential market manipulation. The controversy surrounding the Zelenskyy suit market highlights the challenges and complexities of decentralized prediction markets, where the interpretation of evidence and the governance of outcomes can be contentious and divisive.