Polymarket Delays Token to Challenge Kalshi's U.S. Prediction Market Lead

Polymarket, the blockchain-based prediction market platform, is preparing to launch a native token but is unlikely to do so before 2026, according to multiple sources. The company, valued at $9 billion following a $2 billion investment from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)-the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange-has prioritized regaining a foothold in the U.S. market after a three-year regulatory hiatus. This delay is attributed to strategic timing, with the platform seeking to reestablish dominance in the U.S. ahead of token deployment Polymarket Launching POLY Token, But Not 2025^[1].

The investment from ICE, announced in early October 2025, marks a pivotal partnership for Polymarket, which now operates under the CFTC-regulated derivatives exchange QCX. This acquisition, finalized in July 2025 for $112 million, provided the regulatory infrastructure necessary for Polymarket's U.S. relaunch. The CFTC granted a no-action letter in early September 2025, exempting QCX from certain swap data reporting and recordkeeping obligations, effectively greenlighting Polymarket's return to American users . The platform has since initiated a waitlist for U.S. users and self-certified four market types, including sports and election contracts, with a planned launch as early as October 2 .

Speculation about the token intensified in late September and early October 2025, following Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan's cryptic X post listing "$POLY" alongside major cryptocurrencies. This hint reignited market discussions, though Coplan has not confirmed a launch timeline or utility for the token. Earlier in 2025, the company had explored token warrants for investors, with sources suggesting the token could be used to validate prediction market outcomes Polymarket Launching POLY Token, But Not 2025^[1].

The delay in token issuance reflects Polymarket's strategic focus on U.S. market competition. Rival platform Kalshi currently holds 66% of the U.S. prediction market volume, while Polymarket commands 32% Polymarket vs. Kalshi: Wall Street Steps In With a $2 Billion Power Play^[8]. Kalshi's dominance has been fueled by frequent trading and institutional adoption, whereas Polymarket's longer-term position-holding model has limited immediate liquidity. However, Polymarket's ICE-backed infrastructure and CFTC compliance are seen as long-term advantages, with analysts noting the potential for regulatory clarity and global data access to shift market dynamics Polymarket vs. Kalshi: $2B NYSE Push Signals ‘Regime Change’^[6].

Polymarket's fundraising activities also underscore its preparation for a token launch. The company raised $135 million of a $257 million round by September 2025, bringing its cumulative fundraising to $382 million. A $10 billion valuation has been speculated, supported by its U.S. reentry and institutional partnerships Polymarkets’ Latest SEC Filing Hints for Potential Token Launch^[3]. Token utility remains undefined, but sources suggest it could enable rewards for active users or facilitate governance, aligning with broader DeFi trends Polymarket Launching POLY Token, But Not 2025^[1].

The prediction market sector has seen explosive growth in 2025, with Polymarket, Kalshi, and other platforms collectively generating over $1.4 billion in weekly trading volume. Polymarket's $1.35 million user base and $1 billion monthly trading volume position it as a key player, though its token strategy will need to address competition from Kalshi's simpler compliance model and institutional partnerships U.S. CFTC Gives Go-Ahead for Polymarket’s New Exchange Qcx^[10].

While Coplan's X post briefly elevated market expectations of a 2025 token announcement to 45%, subsequent odds have dropped to 22%, reflecting cautious optimism Polymarket Launching POLY Token, But Not 2025^[1]. The company's SEC filings, which include categories for "warrants to acquire another security," further hint at a token roadmap, with potential launch dates aligned with the first quarter of 2026 Polymarkets’ Latest SEC Filing Hints for Potential Token Launch^[3].