This Polymarket Bet Pays 7-to-1 if GameStop Actually Buys eBay -- and Ryan Cohen Isn't Bluffing

GameStop is now eBay's largest shareholder. Ryan Cohen has pledged $500 million of his own money, called the eBay board "a bunch of losers," and declared "we're coming one way or another." Polymarket prices this acquisition at just 13.5 cents on the dollar. Here's the trade that's catching the meme stock crowd's attention.

Why This Is Still a Live Story

The corporate drama between GameStop and eBay has been unfolding for months, but the key development that keeps it simmering is simple: GameStop keeps buying. The company now holds 43.4 million eBay shares -- roughly 9.8% of the entire company, disclosed in a July 17 SEC filing, as Reuters reported. That position was built through a combination of direct share purchases and put/call pair trades with TD Securities, and it makes GameStop eBay's single largest shareholder.

The saga began in May when GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen made an unsolicited $55.5 billion cash-and-stock offer at $125 per share -- a roughly 46% premium to eBay's pre-offer price. eBay's board unanimously rejected the bid, calling it "neither credible nor attractive," per Forbes. But Cohen didn't retreat. He escalated.

Since then, Cohen has scrapped his own $35 billion performance pay package, redirected GameStop's focus toward the acquisition, and begun meeting with eBay's largest institutional shareholders directly. In a Bloomberg interview, he said he wants to merge the companies into a "broader digital commerce platform" that could compete with Amazon, using GameStop's physical stores as nodes for eBay marketplace and live commerce operations. When the eBay board still refused to engage, he delivered his bluntest line yet: "we're coming for eBay one way or another," as Retail Dive reported.

The Market

Polymarket's "Will GameStop acquire eBay?" event asks a clean binary question: will GameStop announce an acquisition of eBay (or a merger, or a controlling interest) by December 31, 2026? The resolution is trigger-based -- even an announcement counts, regardless of whether the deal closes.

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The Opportunity: Are 13.5 Cents Too Cheap?

At 13.5c for YES, the market is implying an 86.5% probability that GameStop does NOT pull this off by year-end. That's a reasonably skeptical take -- GameStop's market cap is roughly one-fifth of eBay's, financing is conditional on the combined entity achieving investment-grade credit, and the eBay board has shown zero interest in negotiating.

But here's the case for the other side:

GameStop is the largest shareholder. At 9.8%, Cohen has real leverage. He's been meeting with institutional holders, trying to build a coalition that could force eBay's board to the table. If GameStop crosses the 10% threshold (the July 17 filing was at 9.8%, and he's been buying steadily), the dynamics shift further.

Cohen has skin in the game that borders on the irrational. He's pledged $500 million of his own money to back the deal. He scrapped a $35 billion compensation package to remove distractions. He's personally recording interview transcripts into SEC filings. In an interview with ProCap's Anthony Pompliano, per Sherwood News, Cohen said "I want the business" and "we'll do whatever we obviously need to do."

The timeline is still wide open. The Dec 31 deadline gives Cohen five more months. GameStop has been steadily increasing its position since May -- from a 5% derivative position to a 9.8% direct stake. There's no reason to assume the accumulation stops here.

The payout math is attractive for a longshot. At 13.5c, each YES share costs $0.135 and pays $1 if the deal is announced. That's roughly 7.4x. A $100 bet at 13.5c buys about 741 shares, returning $741 if it hits -- $641 in profit. A $500 bet returns about $3,704. The event has $192k in liquidity and $70k in 24-hour volume, enough to trade into without massive slippage.

What the Skeptics Say

The counterargument is substantial. GameStop's Kotaku described the bid as "quixotic." Wall Street's consensus on GME stock is a Strong Sell, with an average price target around $13.50. Michael Burry -- the original Big Short investor who famously bet against the market in 2008 -- sold his entire GameStop stake after the bid surfaced, writing on Substack that he "of all people should have known," as Barchart reported.

The financing is the real hurdle. TD Securities has provided a non-binding commitment for roughly $20 billion, but it's conditional on the combined company achieving investment-grade credit -- a high bar for a merged entity that includes a video game retailer with an unfinished turnaround. eBay's own turnaround under CEO Jamie Iannone has been working: the company has nearly tripled its market value since 2020 by focusing on authenticated high-value categories like trading cards, luxury watches, and sneakers. That success gives the board a credible argument that they don't need a leveraged buyout.

How to Think About It

This market is a pure binary on whether Cohen's activist campaign succeeds. The 13.5c price embeds a lot of skepticism -- the "this is a meme stock fantasy" view. The bull case is that Cohen is the largest shareholder, has committed serious personal capital, and has shown he's willing to go hostile. The bear case is that the math doesn't work, the board won't budge, and the meme stock valuation that funds Cohen's buying power could evaporate.

The smart play might be to watch for the next SEC filing. If GameStop crosses 10% ownership, that's a signal the accumulation continues. If Cohen calls a special shareholder meeting or launches a proxy fight, the probability shifts. If nothing happens by November, the market's skepticism was probably right.

This is a trade idea, not financial advice. Prediction markets are risky, and this position can go to zero. Odds, liquidity, and prices are as of August 5, 2026, and move constantly.

Summary

GameStop's Ryan Cohen is waging an activist campaign to acquire eBay, having accumulated a 9.8% stake and made a $55.5 billion bid. Polymarket prices the deal's completion at 13.5c -- a 7.4x payout -- with five months left on the clock. The case for YES rests on Cohen's relentless escalation and shareholder leverage; the case against rests on financing hurdles and a dug-in eBay board.

Sources

• Reuters: GameStop owns nearly 10% of eBay, SEC filing shows
• Forbes: GameStop Doubles Down On eBay Bid As Ryan Cohen Escalates Pursuit
• Retail Dive: GameStop discloses 10% eBay stake amid ongoing acquisition push
• Kotaku: GameStop's hostile takeover plan
• Sherwood News: GameStop boosts eBay stake after offer rejected
• Barchart: GameStop raises eBay stake to 10%